Strategy cratered 75% over 12 months, analyst sets 350% target price

Strategy Inc, the company that used to be called MicroStrategy before its August 2025 rebrand, has watched roughly three-quarters of its market value evaporate over the past year. Shares are trading between $97 and $100, a far cry from the highs that made the stock a darling of the Bitcoin-proxy trade.

And yet, Wall Street hasn’t given up on it. The consensus analyst price target sits between $229 and $240, implying roughly 130% to 150% upside from current levels. One particularly bullish forecast pegs the target at $450, which would represent a roughly 350% return if the stock cooperates.

A Bitcoin treasury strategy under pressure

Strategy Inc holds over 818,334 BTC as reported in May 2026, making it far and away the largest corporate holder of the asset on the planet. Recent quarterly reports have highlighted substantial unrealized losses from those digital asset holdings. The company has leaned on preferred equity instruments to fund its ongoing acquisition strategy, and has also conducted liquidity sales and capital raises to manage its position.

Why analysts still see massive upside

At $97 to $100 per share, the $229 to $240 consensus suggests that most covering analysts think the market is being too pessimistic by a factor of more than two. The $450 high-end target assumes Bitcoin recovers meaningfully and that Strategy’s leveraged exposure to the asset becomes an amplifier on the way up. Unrealized losses have prompted some analysts to revise their targets lower, and the company’s reliance on capital markets to fund its strategy creates dilution risk for existing shareholders.

The macro backdrop matters more than usual

The company rebranded from MicroStrategy to Strategy Inc in August 2025, a move that signaled its full commitment to the Bitcoin treasury model. The original enterprise analytics business still exists, but the balance sheet contains more than 800,000 Bitcoin. The wide dispersion in analyst targets, ranging from roughly $229 on the conservative end to $450 at the top, reflects genuine uncertainty about where Bitcoin heads from here.

Michael Saylor’s original thesis, that Bitcoin is superior to cash as a treasury reserve asset, hasn’t been abandoned despite a year of painful results. Holdings have grown past 818,000 BTC even as the stock cratered, with purchases funded through preferred equity and other instruments.

Investors considering the stock at these levels are essentially making a leveraged bet on Bitcoin with additional corporate and dilution risk layered on top. The potential 130% to 350% upside that analysts project comes with the implicit acknowledgment that the downside could be equally dramatic if Bitcoin enters another prolonged decline.