Opinion: The AI Investment Cycle Has Entered "Overtime," Four Metrics Can Alert Capital Expenditure Bubble

BlockBeats News, July 10th, BCA Research investment strategist stated that the current AI investment cycle has entered the "overtime," with the AI bubble more reflected on the profit side rather than the valuation side. The pressure from profit growth, demand structure, and supply expansion may concentrate around 2027, at which time the AI capital expenditure growth rate may significantly slow down.

Investors can focus on four bubble warning indicators: GPU rental, AI storage chip prices, AI application penetration rate and corporate investment, and Token price and AI programming agent download volume. Among them, the decline in Token price and the stagnation of AI programming tool downloads are currently the most worthy of early attention signals, reflecting that companies are gradually shifting from pursuing the most advanced models to cost control.

If the AI bubble eventually bursts, its impact on the U.S. economy and capital markets may exceed the 2000 Internet bubble. According to estimates, the U.S. stock market may experience a 30% to 50% correction at that time, dragging down U.S. consumption and economic growth through the wealth effect.