Wheaton Precious Metals faces earnings test amid CEO shift

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. reports fourth-quarter results after the market close Thursday, with investors watching whether the precious metals streaming giant can deliver on sharply elevated earnings expectations while navigating a leadership transition.

Analysts expect the company to post earnings of $0.93 per share, representing a year-over-year increase of 111.4%. Revenues are expected to reach $649 million, up 70.5% from the year-ago quarter. If Wheaton meets consensus forecasts, it would mark substantial sequential improvement from the third quarter, when the Vancouver-based company reported earnings of $0.618 per share on revenue of $476.3 million.

Estimate momentum has turned decidedly bullish heading into the print. EPS estimates have climbed 20.92% over the past 60 days, with a further 1.5% increase over the past week. Revenue estimates have risen 8.99% over the past two months, though they’ve remained relatively stable over the past week.

The report comes as longtime CEO Randy Smallwood is set to step down in March 2026, with Haytham Hodaly named as his successor. The leadership change coincides with what may be the company’s most significant transaction in years. In February, Wheaton entered into a $4.3 billion silver streaming agreement with BHP for the Antamina mine in Peru, representing the most valuable streaming transaction to date based on upfront consideration received.

TD Securities maintained its Buy rating on the stock in February with a $164 price target, just above the current trading level of $148.67. Shares have surged 102% over the past year as strong precious metals prices have amplified the company’s streaming business model, which allows it to purchase metals at fixed prices from mining partners.

What Investors Are Watching

The key question is whether fourth-quarter results will show early operational benefits from the expanded Antamina position, though the deal’s formal completion isn’t expected until April. Investors will also scrutinize management commentary about the integration timeline and production expectations from the doubled silver stream.

The CEO transition adds another layer of uncertainty. Smallwood has led Wheaton through its transformation into one of the world’s largest precious metals streaming companies. How Hodaly articulates his strategic vision—particularly around capital allocation and new streaming opportunities—will be closely monitored.

Finally, investors will watch for any signs of cost pressure or production challenges at Wheaton’s partner mines. The company’s gross profit margin of 84.25% reflects the inherent advantage of its streaming model, but sustained precious metals price strength will be crucial to maintaining that profitability.

The report will offer investors a window into whether Wheaton can sustain its exceptional growth trajectory or whether expectations have outpaced near-term fundamentals. With the stock trading at 52 times forward earnings, there’s limited room for disappointment.