Yesterday, as expected, the market entered a bearish resonance. BTC quickly pulled back by around 3,000 points from its highs, and ETH fell about 150 points in tandem. After a series of short squeezes, the overheated short-term market finally cooled off, leading to a wave of long leverage liquidations.
The main contradiction in the market right now is very clear:
Macroeconomic interest rates are suppressing the upside, but sustained institutional spot capital is limiting the downside.
The yield on US Treasuries remains high, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance indicates that the high interest rate environment is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. This continues to pressure the valuations of risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
However, the market has not entered a panic state.
The Fear & Greed Index remains in the "Greed" area, indicating yesterday’s sharp pullback did not trigger large-scale panic selling. Meanwhile, spot ETF capital is still showing strong support, with no signs of a significant institutional retreat.
Therefore, this round of market action is better defined as:
Mid-term structure remains strong; short-term has entered a pullback. Macroeconomic factors cap the upside; spot capital limits deeper downside.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Mid-term bias is bullish, short-term correction, mainly shorting at highs, buying the dip as secondary.
BTC quickly dropped from around 87,400, triggering a large number of long liquidations in a short time, and is now consolidating weakly around 84,000.
The most positive signal yesterday was that after BTC tested support around 83,500, strong buying emerged and there was no sustained collapse.
From a broader perspective, the mid-term structure is still intact; however, after continuous gains in the short term, the 4-hour RSI has quickly retreated from overbought territory, indicating that bullish momentum is cooling.
Therefore, it’s not appropriate to blindly pursue shorts today, nor to assume the correction is over just because there’s one wave of support.
A more reasonable approach is:
Watch for buying opportunities around 83,000—83,500;
Key resistance at 85,000—85,500 on any rebound;
If there is another strong push above 86,900, continue to watch for selling pressure at the highs.
If support around 83,000 continues to hold, this pullback can still be treated as a normal correction after an uptrend. If this key support is repeatedly lost, the scale of the correction will need to be reassessed.
Support: 83,000-83,500, 82,600
Resistance: 85,000-85,500, 86,900-87,200
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: Structure is relatively stronger than BTC, but short-term is still mainly shorting at highs, buying at lows as secondary.
ETH faced repeated resistance around 2,788, confirming significant selling pressure at the highs.
Currently, the short-term timeframe is entering a corrective stage. The 1-hour and 2-hour charts have conditions for a rebound, and the 4-hour is also approaching a position where it can recover, making the risk-reward of further chasing shorts lower at this level.
However, there are still significant issues in the larger timeframe.
Corrections in the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily timeframes have not been fully completed, so even if there is a short-term rebound, it is still better defined as a recovery, not a new uptrend.
Additionally, potential MACD bearish divergence has already appeared during the previous rally. If the price continues to fail to break above 2,788, watch for further weakening of the high-level structure.
Key points to watch today:
Whether support forms again around 2,661;
Whether a rebound to 2,720—2,750 results in stagnation;
2,788 remains the key resistance level for ETH to turn bullish again.
Support: 2,661, 2,633, 2,536
Resistance: 2,720, 2,750, 2,788
