Failed to break through 4300! Gold is stuck in a tug-of-war—Goldman Sachs sets a target price of 4900

Today, Thursday (September 24), during the Asian session, gold prices fluctuated within a narrow range with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate. Spot gold is currently quoted at $4,290.99 per ounce, up $3.38 or 0.08% on the day. After surging to $4,303.21, it pulled back and consolidated, with solid support below at $4,273.50. The previous close was $4,287.61. In the short term, there is a stalemate between bulls and bears and the direction remains unclear. The $4,300 mark has become a key watershed—if broken, the price may test previous highs; if lost, it could retest the support. The market is waiting for this evening's direction.

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While the market is still focused on candlestick charts, Goldman Sachs has already set its sights on the “hidden gold vaults” of global central banks. According to its latest research report, the global central bank gold buying spree is far from over, and China’s actual purchases may be as high as twice the official data, providing a solid foundation for gold prices to challenge $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Goldman Sachs, by tracking London over-the-counter (OTC) flows, found that China’s actual gold purchases in July were about 35 tons—almost double the 17 tons officially disclosed. Even more striking, the Bank of England's vaults surged by 63 tons in the same period, far exceeding the outflows from the Federal Reserve's New York gold vault. This “unreported” buying is structurally supporting the gold price as countries diversify their foreign exchange reserves and hedge against geopolitical risks. Goldman's models show that global monthly central bank gold purchases have soared to an average of 91 tons—a figure more than five times higher than the average before 2022.

Aside from central banks, Federal Reserve policy shifts are a key variable. Goldman Sachs expects that declining inflation will prompt the Fed to hold rates steady this year, removing the rate-hike headwinds that previously held back gold prices. Once interest rates stabilize, subdued private investor ETF demand seen in the first half of the year may return. This “central bank + retail” dual driving force is the core assumption behind the $4,900 target.

Goldman Sachs specifically warns that the gold options market is brewing a “volatility storm.” As demand for call options surges, market makers are forced to buy spot gold to hedge risk, which could mechanically amplify rallies. Conversely, if gold prices fall, hedging unwinds could intensify declines. This means that even as gold moves towards $4,900, the process will be marked by “intense two-way volatility.”

If stubborn inflation forces the Fed to resume rate hikes, Goldman’s base forecast will be challenged. In this scenario, gold's appeal as a policy hedge decreases, ETF funds may see net outflows, and gold prices could retreat to $4,440. Nevertheless, central bank purchases would still provide a bottom line of support, keeping prices above current levels.

Lastly, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the share of gold in private portfolios remains low, and if geopolitical risks such as the Iran situation escalate, this will accelerate diversification of asset allocations. This “safe haven + central bank + options” triple resonance is a potential risk for gold prices to overshoot on the upside.

[Latest Spot Gold Technical Analysis]

Gold prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate. Spot gold is currently quoted at $4,290.99 per ounce, up $3.38 or 0.08% on the day. After surging to $4,303.21, it pulled back and consolidated, with solid support below at $4,273.50. Technical indicators are overall bearish: MACD, KDJ, and RSI all signal weakness and insufficient short-term momentum. The $4,300 mark is a key dividing line—if broken, new highs are possible; if lost, support levels may be retested.