Concerns over a slowdown in domestic computing power chains, weak domestic real estate chains, and high oil prices combined with loose interest rates may push up US inflation --- 0916 Macro Highlights

Concerns over a slowdown in domestic computing power chains, weak domestic real estate chains, and high oil prices combined with loose interest rates may push up US inflation --- 0916 Macro Highlights

华尔街见闻2026/09/16 12:15

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China’s industrial added value in August improved beyond seasonal expectations, with monthly GDP rebounding to around 4.5%. The hidden concern lies in the slowdown of the economic boost from computing power chains, while domestic demand is not yet strong enough to take over. Accelerated implementation of existing policies has become a key lever. The annual GDP growth rate is expected to be no less than 4.6%.
Industrial production in August showed marginal year-on-year improvement, but the sustainability remains to be observed, with changes in external demand being a crucial next step. Real estate sales, construction starts, and completions all declined on a monthly year-on-year basis, and the breadth of housing price stabilization narrowed. Retail sales remained weak, and intrinsic consumption momentum was lacking. All three major categories of fixed asset investment remained weak overall. Policymaking tools have shifted from project reserves to capital deployment, but no matching funds have yet been observed on the credit side.
US core goods continued to remain stable month-on-month. Against the backdrop of an elevated long-term economic growth rate, oil prices have not fallen back in time, and this round of high oil prices may have effects different from those seen between 2011 and 2014. Policy rates are at the threshold of easing; if GDP growth continues to rise in the third quarter, holding off on a rate hike would place policy rates fully in the loosened range.

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Concerns over a slowdown in domestic computing power chains, weak domestic real estate chains, and high oil prices combined with loose interest rates may push up US inflation --- 0916 Macro Highlights

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