Asian refined oil imports drop to postwar lows as Middle East refining capacity bottlenecks become key variable

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智通财经2026/09/01 02:56

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In August, Asia’s imports of light and middle distillate oils dropped to an average of 5.1 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the outbreak of the Iran war, down nearly 2 million barrels compared to the pre-war three-month average of 7.06 million barrels. The market for middle distillates such as diesel and jet kerosene is under significant pressure, with Singapore diesel prices rising 70% compared to pre-war levels. Refining profit margins have surged from $21.90 per barrel to $67.93 per barrel—three times the level before the war.
In the Middle East, August saw refined oil exports at just 2.14 million barrels per day, a sharp 55% drop from the pre-war three-month average of 4.49 million barrels. This gap almost fully corresponds to the reduction in Asian imports. Although most Gulf refineries have been restored, the surplus refining capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE has not yet translated into actual exports. Vessel shortages and the risks of ship-to-ship transfers may be the main bottlenecks.
The current market is excessively focused on crude oil supply disputes—the US claims daily flows through the strait reach 9 million barrels, while ship-tracking data show less than half that amount—but it is the structural shortage in refined oil markets that is the true driver of prices. If Middle Eastern producers can effectively pivot to refined oil exports, it would help mitigate the impact of high prices on Asia’s economy. However, against the backdrop of Iranian missile threats and soaring shipping insurance, the outlook for this shift remains highly uncertain.

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