Everbright Futures 0821 Gold Commentary: The market first fell and then rose overnight, once again highlighting gold's safe-haven attributes

Overnight, gold first dipped and then rebounded, with spot gold recovering to $4,500/ounce, up 0.08%, and SHFE gold rising by 1.03%. The US initial jobless claims data was released, showing 206,000 filings this week, lower than the expected 210,000, indicating resilient employment. After a sharp rise in gold the previous day, some profit-taking led to intraday fluctuations in gold prices. The US Treasury expanded long-term bond buybacks, causing yields on long-term US Treasuries to climb again. US Treasury Secretary Bessant stated that the size of a single Treasury long-term buyback could exceed $400 million, emphasizing that the Treasury has a strong set of tools, which once again eased market concerns. On the other hand, expanding long-term bond buybacks cannot solve the problem of the US's high fiscal debt; the policy itself is a safeguard measure after a sharp bond market decline, so the market may gradually return to rationality. Short-term gold volatility has intensified.

On the geopolitical front, according to Xinhua News Agency, US forces have quietly established a shipping lane into and out of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure that "several million barrels" of oil are shipped out of the Strait daily, an operation ongoing for several weeks. The rapid growth of US national debt, concerns over stagflation expectations, the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, and the uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September all boost gold’s safe-haven appeal, which may support a relatively strong trend in gold prices.

Written by: Li Qi

Professional Qualification: F3046227

Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0016145

Editor: Zhu Henan