Web3: Bitcoin has dropped nearly half from its peak, but miners have not yet begun to exit en masse

Bitcoin has fallen by nearly half from its October 2025 peak, but miners have not exited on a large scale. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. points out that, despite transaction fee revenues nearly disappearing and miner profits under pressure, Bitcoin's total network hash rate remains at a high level, indicating that the mining industry is undergoing a gradual adjustment rather than disorderly decline.

The drop in price exceeds the drop in hash rate

Data shows that the price of Bitcoin has fallen from around $124,700 in early October 2025 to about $63,400 on August 12, 2026, a cumulative decrease of approximately 49%. Over the same period, Bitcoin's 7-day average hash rate dropped from about 1,150 EH/s to 886 EH/s, a decline of about 23%.

This means that even though the price has clearly fallen, the mining infrastructure has not shrunk sharply at the same pace. For less efficient miners, dollar-denominated revenue declines directly squeeze profit margins, but from a network-wide perspective, the hash rate has not collapsed rapidly.

Transaction fee contribution falls to low levels

Currently, transaction fees account for only 0.71% of miners' revenue. This level is close to the 0.69% seen in December 2015. Since mid-2025, transaction fee contribution has mostly stayed at 1% or below.

Low transaction fees usually indicate weak on-chain block space demand. Miner revenue remains primarily dependent on block subsidies, rather than transaction fees. However, this comparison mainly reflects similarities in revenue structure and does not mean the current mining environment is identical to 2015.

• In 2015, the reward for a single block was 25 BTC
• Currently, the reward for a single block is 3.125 BTC
• Therefore, the pressure on miners now is different from the situation back then

Miners appear to be adjusting their operations

The article argues that when miners exit en masse, the hash rate usually declines more rapidly. But recently, the total network hash rate has fluctuated around 900 EH/s and after dropping sometimes rebounds, suggesting miners are more likely gradually optimizing their equipment and operations rather than quickly leaving the market.

Two signals to watch in the future: First, whether the hash rate drops more noticeably, which would typically mean more inefficient mining machines being shut down; second, whether transaction fee income can consistently return above 1%, indicating improving on-chain demand and miner revenue structure.

Overall, with Bitcoin's price falling nearly half from its high and transaction fee contribution below 1%, the mining industry is still in a pressured adjustment phase rather than a comprehensive collapse.