Bitcoin’s recovery faces a key hurdle: buyers have yet to return in force, even as leveraged traders position for higher prices.
On-chain data firm Glassnode said selling pressure is losing momentum, but fresh demand remains limited. “Sellers are tiring but buyers are absent,” the firm said, warning that leveraged traders are already betting on a recovery that current market data does not yet support.
Bitcoin is trading between two important on-chain cost-basis levels. Glassnode’s “The Week On-Chain” report puts the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at about $68,700, while the Median Realized Price stands near $63,000.
Spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, pointing to unusually low market participation.
ETF flows have turned slightly positive, offering some support to Bitcoin. However, broader institutional demand remains subdued.
Bitcoin is also continuing to move onto exchanges, although the pace has slowed. Exchange inflows can represent potential sell-side supply if holders decide to liquidate their coins.
Derivatives traders remain more bullish than the spot market suggests. Large positions on Hyperliquid have remained net long since March, while futures open interest has climbed sharply.
Leverage traders could face trouble if Bitcoin drops below the key levels they are watching. A deeper decline could force some of them to close losing positions, putting more coins under selling pressure.
Glassnode puts the important downside level at about $58,500. Bitcoin would need to move back above roughly $68,700 to show a clearer improvement in demand.
The data still paints a mixed picture. Selling has slowed, but there is not enough buying activity yet to support a strong rebound.
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