The Japanese yen stabilizes but intervention effects fade; the Australian dollar holds near an eight-week high as markets focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia decision.

智通财经2026/08/11 03:06

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During Tuesday's Asian trading session, the US dollar held steady against the Japanese yen around 159.28, remaining significantly above the three-month high of 155.20 reached last week. Previously, after the yen fell to a 40-year low of 163.99, the US and Japan carried out a rare joint intervention, which led to a brief strengthening of the yen. However, nearly half of those gains have already been erased. Traders generally believe it is only a matter of time before authorities intervene again. Bannockburn Capital Markets' Chief Market Strategist noted that the market is testing the resolve of US and Japanese officials. Trading was lighter than usual due to a Japanese holiday.
According to US regulatory data, as of the week ending August 4, speculators sharply reduced their net short yen positions by $8.865 billion to $3.604 billion, the largest cut in over 12 years. However, analysts believe that, similar to previous post-intervention situations, speculators may take this opportunity to re-establish short positions.
Strategists at ING (Netherlands International Group) said that even if the Bank of Japan raises rates in September while the Federal Reserve remains on hold, the risk remains real for the yen to fall back to the 160.0 level against the US dollar this month. Traders currently estimate the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September to be slightly above 50%.
The market's focus today turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision, which is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. However, the market will closely watch the statements of policymakers. The Australian dollar is currently trading near $0.7055 against the US dollar, after briefly touching an eight-week high of $0.7077 last Friday. Commonwealth Bank of Australia's foreign exchange strategist said the Reserve Bank of Australia may emphasize that inflation remains elevated and signal readiness to raise rates again if necessary, though a slowdown in inflation and a weak real estate market provide space to assess the lagged effects of previous tightening policies.
The market is awaiting US Consumer Price Index data due Wednesday, Producer Price Index on Thursday, and retail sales data on Friday to further assess inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's policy path.

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