The Hormuz Agreement hopes to intertwine with Middle East attacks, oil prices continue to rise

1. In early Asian trading on Monday, oil prices edged higher, continuing last week's upward trend. Brent crude approached $83.43 per barrel, up about 1.5% from last Friday's closing price, with a cumulative rise of over 5% in the previous three trading sessions; WTI crude traded near $79 per barrel. The market is waiting for a possible agreement between Iran and Oman on managing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while a new round of attacks in the region keeps supply risks elevated.2. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said on Sunday that an agreement with Oman to establish a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was “very close” to being reached, but ruled out the possibility of direct talks with the United States, blaming Washington for repeatedly violating a memorandum of understanding signed in June. He also warned that any agreement would not mean the strait would immediately reopen.3. Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser stated on a financial results conference call that even if the situation returned to normal immediately, restoring oil production and supply to pre-war levels would take at least 18 months. This statement echoes Iran’s warnings and further reinforces market expectations that the supply recovery will be a lengthy process.4. However, regional tensions have not eased. Yemen’s Houthi forces claimed responsibility for another attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery, and a tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was also attacked in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. According to Axios, U.S. President Trump expressed patience regarding the Iran issue, saying it is currently being handled “quietly.”5. The hope for controlled transportation arrangements and persistent security risks are intertwined, forcing traders to weigh the prospect of gradually easing supply disruptions against the possibility of further escalation. Ahead of the release of this week’s US CPI data, market sentiment remains cautiously bullish.