Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rallies further with bulls eyeing $4,380 area

Gold (XAU/USD) resumes its bullish trend on Friday, after a brief consolidation on Thursday, to reach fresh three-week highs above $4,300, with bulls aiming for mid-June highs in the $4,380 area. The precious metal is on track for its strongest weekly performance since January, with a nearly 7% gain, although further appreciation is likely to depend on the outcome of July’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due later in the day.

The market consensus forecasts a net increase of 80K payrolls, from 57K in June, although analysts from some of the world’s major commercial banks are keeping a cautious view.

Deutsche Bank experts are anticipating a more modest improvement in today’s labour market report, with a “slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously). They note that such an outcome “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring momentum rather than a sharp deterioration.

Technical Analysis: Gold confirms a trend shift

XAU/USD trades at $4,315.19, keeping a constructive near‑term bias after breaking the downward trendline resistance from April highs earlier this week. Relative Strength Index (RSI) studies highlight overstretched levels on intraday charts, although the daily chart shows room for further appreciation, at 67. The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps trending higher, reinforcing the bullish view.

Above $4,300, the next hurdle lies at the June 15 and 17 highs in the mentioned $4,380 area. Further up, the late-May lows just ahead of $4,600 will come into focus. Supports are at Thursday's low of $4,223, ahead of the broken trendline, now around $4,050, and the July 31 and August 3 lows, around the $4,000 level.