Today is Friday, and the most noteworthy event this week is the US nonfarm payrolls data.
In the past few days, the crypto market has continued to fluctuate within a range. Although it has occasionally been influenced by US stock market movements, there has not been a true trending move. Each time the price tests the upper resistance levels, it lacks sustained follow-through capital, and after breaking through, it quickly returns to the trading range.
The biggest problem in the market right now is still insufficient liquidity.
The technical pattern has gradually shifted in favor of the bulls, but the momentum cannot sustain significant volume growth. As a result, the price action can only advance repeatedly through pullbacks for accumulation—followed by another rally, rather than in a smooth trending move.
The nonfarm payrolls data released tonight will likely become an important catalyst for a short-term directional choice. If the data significantly deviates from market expectations, both BTC and ETH could use the news to break out of the current consolidation zone.
Therefore, before the data is released, chasing the rise or selling on panic remains risky. It's better to wait until the market gives a clear direction and then follow accordingly.
₿ BTC
View: Consolidation awaiting breakout, 65,000 remains the key dividing line.
BTC is currently still in a classic converging triangle pattern:
The highs are trending lower;
The lows are trending higher;
The trading range is narrowing.
This structure typically means the market is building energy; once it breaks out, subsequent volatility usually increases significantly.
The most crucial level right now remains around 65,000.
If there is a breakout above 65,000 with volume and the price holds, short stop-loss orders may be triggered, pushing the move further towards 65,400 or even 66,200;
If price gets rejected again, beware that it could pull back to test support around 64,000, or even near 63,200.
In terms of technical indicators:
Daily RSI remains neutral;
Daily MACD negative values are narrowing, but a golden cross has not formed yet;
ADX remains low, indicating the trend has not truly started;
4-hour MACD is showing divergence, suggesting there is some short-term pullback pressure;
1-hour MACD green bars are shrinking, meaning bearish momentum is weakening.
It is worth noting that the current bid-ask depth ratio is about 2:1, with buy orders clearly outweighing sell orders below the price, indicating that if market sentiment improves, bid-side support could provide a floor for prices.
Overall, it is still an awaiting breakout phase, while tonight’s nonfarm payroll data may be the crucial factor driving the market's direction.
Key Levels
Support: 64,000-63,200
Resistance: 65,048-65,400-66,200
⟠ ETH
View: Bullish consolidation, still led by BTC’s movement.
ETH has slightly outperformed BTC recently, but has yet to form a fully independent trend.
Currently:
The 4-hour structure remains bullish;
The daily chart still holds in a consolidation box;
Price continually battles within the 1900-1927 area.
On the funding front, there is still some support:
Spot ETH ETFs continue to see net inflows;
Large on-chain holders are consistently increasing their positions, indicating some long-term capital is still accumulating.
However, the current uptrend is more of a correlated recovery, not a self-driven bull run.
Next, keep an eye on several key levels:
Holding 1909 and breaking above 1924 could see another test of resistance near 1950;
If price falls below 1892, the market may return to defensive trading and stay range-bound.
All in all, before BTC confirms a clear breakout, ETH will most likely continue its consolidation and recovery pattern.
Key Levels
Support: 1890-1895-1872-1850-1860
Resistance: 1926-1950-1982
