European Central Bank: One more hike base case as data soften – OCBC

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that the European Central Bank's (ECB) June minutes justified the latest rate hike while keeping flexibility on future moves. Since then, Oil prices have fallen sharply and June Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the downside. Their base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, though President Lagarde’s comments in Sintra raise the risk that June was a one‑and‑done move.

ECB weighs final hike versus pause

"The ECB’s June meeting minutes reinforced the Governing Council’s view that the June rate hike was fully justified based on the information available at the time, while maintaining flexibility on future policy moves."

"Since the 11 June meeting, oil prices have fallen sharply and June CPI data surprised on the downside."

"Our base case remains for one final ECB rate hike in September, although ECB President Lagarde’s comments in Sintra have increased the possibility that June marked a "one-and-done" move."