Chinese Yuan: Forecast band tightened as stability holds against US Dollar – ING

ING's Chief Economist Lynn Song notes that the CNY has been one of the strongest performers in 2026, even against a firm Dollar backdrop. Song tightens its USD/CNY forecast band to 6.67–6.92 for the rest of the year, citing PBoC-driven currency stability, strong Chinese exports, a robust current account surplus and expectations of a narrowing US-China yield spread.

CNY resilience and revised band

"The CNY has been one of the top performers so far in 2026. With upside risks increasingly reflected in current valuations, we are narrowing and modestly lowering our forecast range to 6.67–6.92 for the remainder of the year."

"Will the CNY outperformance repeat in the second half? This is probably a more dollar-centric rather than CNY-centric question. The dollar-weakening trend would likely result in the CNY underperforming other currencies."

"With the PBOC holding fixings near 6.80 over the past month — after earlier, more gradual downward moves — that level now looks like a sensible midpoint for our forecast band for the second half of the year."

"As we enter the second half of the year, we tighten and nudge down our USD/CNY forecast band, revising it to 6.67-6.92."

"With markets already pricing in a hawkish Fed, modest PBOC easing, continued Middle East risks, and slowing Chinese growth, there might need to be substantial new catalysts to drive the CNY back toward the 7 level for the remainder of the year."