Serenity: AAOI bulls highlight optical module supply-demand imbalance and AI computing power bottlenecks, with long-term growth expectations extending to 2028

BlockBeats news, June 17 — Serenity responded on social media to bearish sentiment toward optical module company AAOI, stating that they still maintain a high-conviction long position and believe that the market's pessimistic expectations for the stock are misplaced.

Their core logic revolves around a structural supply-demand gap in the AI infrastructure chain: they pointed out that the industry is currently constrained by the production capacity of high-end lasers and optical modules, while demand for high-speed optical interconnect from AMD and major cloud providers continues to rise. At the same time, the overall AI computing power ecosystem is still restricted by NVDA-dominated supply bottlenecks.

This view holds that the US has key production capacity advantages in the 800G/1.6T optical module and related transceiver supply chain, but overall supply and demand is still under significant strain, and some high-end packaging and assembly steps rely on outsourcing to Asia.

In terms of performance expectations, the investor mentioned that the company may reach around $560 million annualized revenue (estimated at the ARR level) in 2027, and believes the current market capitalization still does not fully reflect the long-term growth potential. Some key volume cycles may also extend into 2028.

At the same time, the view points out short-term volatility risks, including potential ATM secondary offerings and sentiment swings driven by industry news, and notes that analysis reports and market rumors around peers like LITE may have a linked impact on the entire optical communications sector.

Overall, this long narrative continues to bet on the "optical interconnect bottleneck" in the AI computing power expansion cycle, and believes that the market still underestimates the medium- to long-term growth pace.