India raises gold tariffs but struggles against external pressures; high oil prices may push current account deficit above 2%

汇通财经2026/05/25 03:12

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India has increased tariffs and tightened import regulations to curb gold imports, but these measures may not be sufficient to ease external sector pressures. Emkay Global warns that if Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel, the current account deficit (CAD) for fiscal year 2026-27 could widen to over 2% of GDP (its baseline forecast is 1.7% with oil at $80 per barrel).
Barclays Bank also expresses concerns about India's external position, noting that elevated international gold prices could undermine the effectiveness of measures such as raising the gold import tariff (from 6% to 15%). The bank also recommends monitoring the shrinking capital account surplus, for example, by allowing state-owned banks to issue foreign currency bonds and unifying withholding tax rates on foreign capital inflows.
Industry expert Daga noted that with gold prices high, consumers may shift to lighter jewelry, opt for exchanges of old for new, or purchase gem-set products. However, India's gold demand remains fundamentally strong, driven by weddings, festivals, and long-term value preservation.

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India raises gold tariffs but struggles against external pressures; high oil prices may push current account deficit above 2%

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