Apple (AAPL.US) All-Glass 20th Anniversary iPhone "Rashomon": Jefferies just said it was canceled, insiders quickly refute and say it is still proceeding as planned

According to Zhitong Finance APP, just as Apple (AAPL.US) is about to launch the iPhone 18 series in September and new CEO John Ternus will officially take over on September 1st, a fierce debate has erupted between Wall Street and Silicon Valley over Apple's future product strategy. On August 10th, Jefferies analyst Edison Lee made a rare downgrade of Apple to "Underperform", citing "supply chain research shows that the all-glass iPhone has been canceled due to poor yield rate." However, just one day later, Bloomberg, citing sources, explicitly refuted this: Apple's product roadmap has not changed, and the glass-based 20th-anniversary edition iPhone is still scheduled to launch in 2027 as planned.

2027 holds special strategic significance for Apple—the iPhone will celebrate its 20th anniversary. A decade ago, for the 10th anniversary, Apple skipped the iPhone 9 and directly released the milestone iPhone X, which thoroughly redefined the product’s form with its full-screen and Face ID.

Jefferies' "Pessimistic Scenario": Poor Yield Results in Demise of All-Glass iPhone

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee dropped a major bombshell in his Monday report. Citing supply chain research, he stated that Apple’s original plan to launch a 20th-anniversary "all-glass iPhone" in September 2027 had been officially canceled due to "production yields being too low".

This canceled device originally embodied the ultimate vision of former Apple Chief Design Officer Jony Ive—to make a smartphone look like it was made from a single piece of glass. Jefferies estimated the device’s blended retail average selling price (ASP) could have reached $2,060, far higher than the iPhone 17 Pro Max’s $1,199 starting price.

For Jefferies, canceling the all-glass iPhone is a "major setback". The analyst’s logic chain is clear and harsh:

First, high-end price hikes are hindered. Apple’s long-term plan was to "extend the all-glass design to future iPhone Pro and Pro Max models, further driving up average selling price and margins". The cancellation means it will be much harder than expected for Apple to raise its iPhone ASP through new form factors.

Second, foldables cannot carry the torch. With the all-glass iPhone canceled, the foldable iPhone becomes the "only key driver for improving ASP and margins". But Lee believes foldables will likely remain "niche products", with the 256GB version expected to start at $2,199 and can reach up to $3,099 for the highest configuration. He forecasts only about 14 million units in fiscal 2028, insufficient to support Apple’s overall high-end strategy.

Based on this judgment, Jefferies downgraded Apple from "Hold" to "Underperform", slashing the target price from $285.56 to $263.66—an implied downside of around 16%. The firm also lowered its forecast for the iPhone’s ASP compound annual growth rate from 2026 to 2031 from 9.0% to 6.8%, and cut earnings per share estimates for fiscal 2028 and 2029 by 2.1% and 3.4%, respectively.

Insider’s "Optimistic Rebuttal": Roadmap Unchanged, Design Compromised

However, Jefferies’ report survived less than 24 hours. On August 11, the media cited sources who explicitly refuted claims that the all-glass iPhone had been canceled. The report says Apple "is expected to launch a new iPhone Pro model next year with an all-new glass-feel exterior". Insiders emphasized: "Apple’s product roadmap has not changed".

Two new iPhone Pro models, internally codenamed V73 and V74, will reportedly have glass on both the front and back, with the glass curving around the device’s sides and a metal mid-frame in the center.

However, the report also reveals the root of the dispute: Apple's design has indeed compromised. Apple’s design studio once pushed for a more idealistic version that used more glass instead of metal, but it was abandoned early on. When pursuing this design, Apple faced issues joining the glass panels, and the solution proved unviable for mass production.

This means the all-glass iPhone has not been "canceled", but rather downgraded from a radical "single piece of glass" solution to a feasible "glass curved to the device’s sides with a metal frame in the middle" alternative. Apple is trading engineering compromise for design breakthrough—a familiar pattern in Apple’s product development history.

New iPhone designs are usually finalized about a year before their annual fall launch, meaning the 2027 design is now in late-stage testing and largely fixed—unless something unforeseen occurs.

Still, Apple’s design studio once pushed for an even more radical version—more glass, less metal—but this plan was abandoned early. Reasons included: Apple faced technical challenges joining the glass panels, and the design didn’t meet mass production requirements. This explains the subtle difference between "all-glass" and "glass-based": Apple hasn’t abandoned a major glass overhaul, just the unrealistic "fully seamless glass" version.

Strategic Dilemma: Soaring Memory Costs and the High-End Route "Dilemma"

No matter the final shape of the all-glass iPhone, this debate points directly to Apple’s current core strategic contradiction.

Memory costs are soaring. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring estimates that Apple’s DRAM average cost will rise about 370% from fiscal 2025 to 2027. Apple has recently raised Mac and iPad prices because of this, and CEO Tim Cook has called the price hikes "inevitable". A $200 price increase across the whole iPhone 18 line is becoming more likely.

Jefferies’ supply chain research shows each extra 4GB of DRAM adds $60-70 to iPhone’s bill of materials. The iPhone 19 Pro Max’s DRAM plan is to increase from 12GB to 16GB, but only for that model—proof of direct cost pressure.

"Apple Intelligence" breakthroughs remain limited—this is another core reason for Jefferies' downgrade. If AI fails to become the key force driving replacement cycles, Apple will have to make a tough choice between "hardware price hikes" and "sluggish sales".

The First Big Test of the Ternus Era

This debate over "a piece of glass" comes at a critical moment for Apple’s power transition. On September 1, John Ternus, with a background in hardware engineering, will officially succeed Tim Cook as CEO. The progress and compromise of the all-glass iPhone will be a microcosm of Ternus’s first major product decisions in office.

For investors, this "Rashomon" reveals a central truth: Apple’s high-end strategy is facing unprecedented engineering and cost challenges. The all-glass iPhone—whether "canceled" or "compromised"—shows that, against the backdrop of soaring memory costs and AI features yet to trigger replacement demand, the path to maintaining a product premium through revolutionary design has become tougher than anticipated.