自我判断见顶以来，原油一路稳步下跌，目前已触及我在图表上标注的第一个下行目标位 260930

地平线全球策略2026/09/30 08:35

作者:地平线全球策略

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自我判断见顶以来，原油一路稳步下跌，目前已触及我在图表上标注的第一个下行目标位 260930 image 0

1/ Oil has fallen steadily since I called the top. It has now reached the first downside target I marked on the chart. Magic? Astrology? Neither. Just Mr. Market doing what he does.

自从我判断见顶以来，原油一路稳步下跌。目前已经触及我在图表上标注的第一个下行目标位。魔法？占星术？都不是。只是市场先生在按它的方式行事。

2/ To my newsletter subscribers: a little pre-holiday gift. If you’ve made some money, take your family somewhere nice and get some well-deserved rest.

致我订阅通讯的读者们：给大家一份小小的假期前礼物。如果你在这笔交易上赚了钱，就带家人去个好地方，好好享受应得的假期吧。

自我判断见顶以来，原油一路稳步下跌，目前已触及我在图表上标注的第一个下行目标位 260930 image 1

BRN（日线图，截止260930）

该部分为上周周刊的部分截取，完整内容详见26-09-27《每周综述 Ari's Weekly Wrap：整合性的视角》：

自我判断见顶以来，原油一路稳步下跌，目前已触及我在图表上标注的第一个下行目标位 260930 image 2

BRN（日线图，截止260927）

继续如期下跌并创下更低的收盘价+黄线数次停滞。

自我判断见顶以来，原油一路稳步下跌，目前已触及我在图表上标注的第一个下行目标位 260930 image 3

BRN（小时图，截止260927）

自我判断见顶以来，原油一路稳步下跌，目前已触及我在图表上标注的第一个下行目标位 260930 image 4

关于为什么价格会在黄线停滞

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对结构的判断不变，下面粘贴相关内容：

Still inside the channel, but a topping contraction pattern has already appeared, and momentum is weakening at the same time. The contraction means that price driving force is disappearing at this level, while systematic dip-buying capital continues to execute mechanically.

A tail event would constitute a breakout of the upper bound; a breakdown of the channel would trigger passive stop-losses among these mechanical funds and produce a longs-killing-longs decline.

If a decline materializes, we may find support in the 92-95 zone, corresponding to a 10% 15% drop (depending on the time and speed of the decline). If so, I expect some news to surface in a timely manner at that level.

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自我判断见顶以来，原油一路稳步下跌，目前已触及我在图表上标注的第一个下行目标位 260930 image 5

HO（日线图，截止260927）

#HO triggered a Bear Trigger and entered a descendingchannel. The model did not generate a top-prediction signal,but alongside the unusual capital activity, we also saw themomentum detail begin to weaken.

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