Crypto Revenue Halved, Prediction Market Surges Over 6x: Robinhood (HOOD.US) Breaks the Deadlock

According to Woofun AI, Robinhood (HOOD.US) released its third-quarter financial report on October 27, revealing a profound transformation in its business structure. Although traditional cryptocurrency trading revenue declined sharply due to decreased market activity, the company offset the risks of a single business cycle with explosive growth in Robinhood Chain infrastructure and prediction markets, demonstrating a clear path from a pure trading platform toward a diversified financial ecosystem.

The cyclical fluctuations of traditional crypto business were vividly reflected in this quarter’s report. Affected by sluggish trading activity, Robinhood’s cryptocurrency trading revenue dropped 55% year-on-year to just $120 million. Excluding the $26 million in new revenue generated by Robinhood Chain, its core crypto trading business revenue was only $94 million, down 6% quarter-on-quarter.

This data confirms the high sensitivity of retail crypto trading to price volatility. However, Robinhood Chain delivered an impressive performance in its first full quarter after mainnet launch on July 1, processing over $80 billion in decentralized exchange trading volume and generating more than $50 million in on-chain fees. About $26 million of this was recognized as the company’s crypto revenue, with the remainder mostly allocated to Arbitrum DAO’s revenue sharing and the on-chain application layer.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this breakthrough at the infrastructure level indicates that the company is attempting to move beyond a sole reliance on user cryptocurrency trading, instead generating more stable ecosystem income by building underlying protocols. This shift from “toll fees” to “infrastructure fees” provides investors with a deeper entry point into tokenized assets and decentralized trading, significantly reducing the business’s vulnerability to short-term market sentiment.

Meanwhile, prediction markets have become another major engine driving the company’s growth. In the third quarter, event contract revenue reached $173 million—a more than sixfold year-on-year increase—even surpassing revenue from stock trading. This strong segment performance enabled Robinhood’s total transaction-based revenue to grow by 19% year-on-year, effectively offsetting the decline in the crypto business. Prediction markets extend the company’s core positioning—enabling retail investors easy access to financial markets—into real-world events like sports competitions and political activities, opening up brand new sources of revenue.

From a financial fundamentals perspective, as of 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on November 10, 2026, HOOD’s share price stood at $81.33, down 2.39% on the day within a range of $79.96 to $83.32. The company’s market value reached $73.24 billion. The 52-week share price fluctuated between $63.52 and $139.75, with a trading volume of 13.5 million shares.

Despite facing the dual risks of crypto market cycles and regulatory uncertainty in prediction markets, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about Robinhood’s prospects. Of the 32 analysts covering the stock, 26 have issued “Buy” or “Strong Buy” ratings, with an average target price of around $131.

However, the company’s current P/E ratio (TTM) is about 39.7 times, indicating a rich valuation. Whether emerging businesses can continue to support this premium has become a key variable. This marks a significant restructuring of the traditional financial model by native Web3 businesses following the digital transformation of traditional brokerages.