Anthropic (ANT.US) targets IPO at trillion-dollar valuation; venture capitalists warn it may signal the peak of the AI market

According to Zhihu Finance APP, Jack Selby, head of venture capital firm Copper Sky, said on Wednesday that the high-profile initial public offering (IPO) of Anthropic PBC (ANT.US) could mark the peak of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and potentially trigger a chain reaction of pullbacks once the initial lock-up period ends.

The Claude chatbot developer is seeking to raise about 100 billion USD in total through its IPO, private placements, and potential overallotment options. According to sources familiar with the matter, Anthropic underwriters have indicated that the offering price is expected to be raised above the previously announced $70 to $78 range from documents filed early Tuesday, which could push the valuation target to 1.5 trillion USD or higher in the coming days. Anthropic is expected to officially list for trading next week.

Although early signals show strong market demand for this historic debut and reports suggest the offering could be expanded, Selby remains skeptical.

"If Anthropic's IPO performs poorly, then it will certainly become a very significant player in a major AI market pullback," said Selby, who also serves as managing partner for the Peter Thiel family office. "If the IPO of this most high-profile AI company falls far short of expected valuations, just imagine how much further its share price might drop once the lock-up period ends."

Selby has been bearish on AI deals for a long time. Over a year ago, he called the frenzy surrounding the industry the biggest bubble in private tech investment history. He again questioned the notion of unlimited AI demand, noting that Chinese models such as DeepSeek are only about six months behind, posing another threat to Anthropic.

"If their technology lags Anthropic by six or nine months, then what unique advantages does Anthropic really have that put it ahead, or does its technology have any national security value?" he said.

As for whether he would invest in Asian AI deals, Selby said that if he could, he would "go heavily long Chinese AI." He noted that Anthropic cannot claim all its business requires U.S.-based models, since most current use cases are for general needs, leaving room for arbitrage.

He warned that the end of Anthropic's lock-up period could put particularly heavy pressure on its share price. He said SoftBank Group and Oracle (ORCL.US) act as canaries in the coal mine—signals of risk—with Oracle being especially vulnerable due to its high debt ratio. For investors who must hold AI assets, he suggested Alphabet (GOOGL.US)'s Google as a better bet.

Selby said Anthropic’s revenue structure is one of the reasons for his skepticism: over 80% of its income is nonrecurring and vulnerable to rivals improving their technology. He noted that if competitors close just a six- or nine-month gap in lead, that would be a major worry; he added that capital spending is huge, as data, energy, data centers, and chips are all expensive, while interest rates are no longer near zero.

"Its capital expenditure intensity is just too high," Selby said. "It's a real business, but it's still early stage—the idea that it's a trillion-dollar business is especially far-fetched."