The "Quantum Computing" Halo Can't Offset Fundamentals Growth Disappointment! Rigetti (RGTI.US) Fell Over 9% After Hours; Fidelity Meets Standards but Revenue Misses Expectations by 60%

According to Zhitong Finance APP, the highly popular "quantum computing concept stock" in the US stock market in recent years, Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US), released its third-quarter financial report for 2026 as of September 30, Beijing time on the morning of November 11, covering the period from July 1 to September 30. The performance data show that although this tech company focused on quantum computing has achieved technical milestones, its revenues have fallen far short of market consensus expectations, suffering significant setbacks in revenue, losses, and order acceptance progress. This led to the company's share price plummeting by over 9% in after-hours trading in the US market.

As of the close of US stocks on November 10 Eastern Time, the stock fell by 6.63% to $12.12, with a cumulative decline of about 23% since the fourth quarter. Rigetti's 108-qubit system has achieved a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5%, further validating the scalability of its chiplet architecture, but technological progress has not yet led to stable revenue growth.

The financial results show that the company's Q3 revenue was only $1.411 million, down 27.5% year-on-year and 72.5% quarter-on-quarter, about 60% lower than the consensus estimate of $3.52 million. Adjusted loss per share also missed expectations. The full-year revenue target of about $20 million still depends on the acceptance of the India C-DAC system in Q4. For the market, the next round of valuation support will depend on whether technological milestones can more quickly translate into deliverable systems, customer acceptance, and sustained revenue.

Revenue About 60% Below Expectations, R&D Spending Continues to Drive Losses Higher

The financial report shows that Rigetti Computing's Q3 revenue was $1.411 million, down 27.5% year-on-year and 72.5% quarter-on-quarter, about 59.9% below Wall Street analysts' consensus expectation of about $3.52 million. Adjusted loss per share was $0.06, compared to a loss of $0.03 in the same period last year and $0.05 in the previous quarter, also worse than analysts' consensus loss of about $0.05 per share. The company’s cumulative revenue for the first three quarters was $10.949 million, up 109.8% year-on-year, with growth mainly concentrated in the first half of the year.

The company's Q3 gross profit was $857,000, up 112.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin rising from 20.7% to 60.7%. The increase in gross profit from an improved revenue structure still cannot offset expanding R&D. R&D expenses rose 69.7% to $25.495 million, and operating loss expanded 61.5% to $33.186 million. GAAP net loss narrowed from $201 million last year to $3.137 million, including a $25.291 million warrant fair value gain. Adjusted net loss was $20.468 million, up 92.2% year-on-year and 28.1% quarter-on-quarter.

Public information shows that Rigetti Computing mainly engages in superconducting quantum processors, systems, and quantum cloud services, possessing a full-stack software and hardware technology from chip manufacturing to control systems. Its main clients are government laboratories, national research institutions, and corporate R&D departments. The high market valuation assigned to Rigetti is primarily based on these long-term application prospects, while current revenue still depends on a small number of research contracts and system deliveries.

Some Wall Street institutional investors have even proclaimed that quantum computing may be entering a stage similar to the early AI large-model era, and predict that this cutting-edge technology will be the "core engine of the next generation computing revolution."

The theoretical foundation of quantum computing lies in quantum superposition, entanglement, and interference. Classical bits are either 0 or 1, while quantum bits can be in a superposition of both; multiple qubits form joint states via entanglement, and algorithms use quantum gates to control interference and increase the probability of measuring the target result. Although the state of n qubits involves 2ⁿ basis states, this does not mean all answers can be read simultaneously, nor does it guarantee exponential speedup for all tasks. The breakthrough potential is mainly in areas like molecular and material simulation and large integer factorization; reliable, long-term computation also requires quantum error correction, organizing error-prone physical qubits into reliable logical qubits. In the future, a collaborative system dominated by AI technology involving quantum and classical computing is more likely to emerge.

108 Qubits Achieved, Full-year Revenue Still Relies on Customer Acceptance

The company expects its 2026 revenue to be about $20 million, contingent on the 108-qubit system at India's Center for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) passing acceptance in Q4, thus recognizing the related income.

According to actual revenue for the first three quarters, about $9.051 million in revenue is needed in Q4. The C-DAC order amount is $8.4 million; delivery and acceptance of a single contract have significant impacts on the company's annual revenue. The fluctuations in quarterly revenue also reflect that commercialization is still driven by a small number of large-scale projects.

A key technical incremental aspect lies in the Cepheus-1-108Q system, which interconnects 12 9-qubit chiplets. The median two-qubit gate fidelity increased from about 99.1% in Q2 to 99.5%. Lower gate error rates help support deeper computational circuits and reduce the burden of error correction. The next target is to achieve over 300 qubits and about 99.7% fidelity by mid-2028, and to reach about 1,000 qubits and 99.9% fidelity within about three years. Investment value depends on whether error rates, manufacturing costs, and system delivery cycles can continue to be controlled as scale expands.

Cash Reserves Support R&D, Market Valuation Now Questions Speed of Delivery

As of the end of September, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable investments totaled $497.1 million, down about 11.1% year-on-year and 8.2% quarter-on-quarter, with the company having no debt. Operating cash outflow for the first three quarters was $49.061 million, up 12.4% year-on-year; capital expenditures for equipment were $42.598 million, up 202.1% year-on-year. This also largely means that the company still has capital to advance R&D, but cash investment in refrigeration, chip manufacturing, and system expansion is accelerating.

Recent institutional adjustments also reflect this repricing. Before the earnings report, Wedbush on November 5 maintained its Outperform rating and lowered its target price from $37 to $25, citing downward adjustments to growth assumptions for 2027 and 2028. B. Riley on November 9 maintained its Buy rating and lowered the target price from $25 to $23.

Based on the closing price on November 10 and shares outstanding as of the end of Q3, Rigetti's market capitalization is still about $4.15 billion, equivalent to roughly 208 times its annual revenue guidance. Such a valuation is highly sensitive to the speed of revenue recognition; the time lag between technological progress, order acquisition, and acceptance is the core explanation for the recent dramatic and extremely weak stock price movements.