U.S. Stocks Preview | Three Major Index Futures Rise, WTI Crude Falls Below $100, Midterm Elections, Apple Earnings, and Nonfarm Payrolls All Coming This Week

Pre-market Market Movements

1. Before the U.S. market opened on Monday, November 2, all three major U.S. stock index futures rose. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.61%, S&P 500 index futures up 0.54%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.80%.

2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.21%, the UK's FTSE 100 index was up 0.05%, France's CAC40 index was up 0.33%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.28%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures were down 4.50% to $99.43/barrel; Brent crude oil futures were down 4.32% to $108.53/barrel.

Market News

After the tech stocks sell-off, the U.S. market braces for a pivotal week: midterm elections, major earnings, and nonfarm payrolls lined up. Earnings from major U.S. tech stocks consistently missed expectations, sparking a significant tech sector sell-off. However, the market generally views this as an "expectation adjustment," not a decline in fundamentals. This week, focus shifts to the U.S. midterm elections, the October nonfarm payroll report, and heavyweight earnings including Apple (AAPL.US); at the same time, after Binance experienced the largest crypto hack in history, rebuilding trust and the future of crypto regulation have become new focal points for the industry.

Breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations sends global oil below $100. On November 1, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran had agreed to a "two-day plan"—following U.S. compliance, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen the next day and Iran-U.S. negotiations would resume; mediators such as Qatar are working to shorten the deadline to within five days. Previously, Netanyahu urged Trump to "immediately resume war against Iran" after the midterms, but Trump prefers to let the negotiation process play out. Progress in talks has eased concerns over oil supply disruptions: WTI crude fell below $100/barrel, Brent dropped nearly 4%, easing inflation pressure on risk assets.

OPEC+ maintains December output, no boost in supply for now. In a statement on November 1, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said seven major OPEC+ producers decided to keep current crude output unchanged for December. Media reports say producers are still dealing with export disruptions from Middle East tensions and won't adjust policies further before next year. Each country must complete capacity assessments in Q4 to finalize 2027 quotas. OPEC+ increased output monthly from April to September this year, paused hikes in October, and maintaining the status quo, combined with U.S.-Iran negotiation progress, has lowered oil risk premiums—but volatility in the Middle East remains a key variable.

Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts, warns of climbing supply risks. Goldman Sachs has raised end-2024 and 2027 oil price forecasts, citing rising risks to crude supply. As Middle East conflicts drag on for months, Goldman joins other banks in lifting its estimates. In a report led by Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, analysts now expect Brent crude to reach $105/barrel in December (previously $90); the 2025 annual average is now forecast at $88/barrel, $10 above the previous estimate. WTI crude forecast has also been raised.

U.S. midterm elections approach, Tuesday’s vote injects liquidity and policy risk. The U.S. midterm elections will take place on Tuesday, November 3, local time, with market focus on how Congressional control will affect fiscal, regulatory, and industry policy going forward. Analysts point out the election adds headline and liquidity risk between the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision and Wednesday’s market open, but not to scheduled data. In the final full trading week ahead of the vote, investors tend to reduce directional bets, while volatility in tech and high-beta sectors may be amplified by election uncertainty—making the election itself a source of short-term disruption.

The AI funding race spreads to Japan, yen bond issuance hits $16 billion record. According to reports, as the global AI cloud boom drives a financing surge, overseas businesses and institutions are turning to Japanese investors for funding. Data from Daiwa Securities shows that between April and September this year, yen-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities reached a record high. The total for yen bonds issued by foreign institutions in Japan and overseas reached about 2.5 trillion yen (~$15.9 billion), up 160% year-on-year, surpassing the October 2018 to March 2019 record of 2.1 trillion yen.

Stock News

Resilient pre-holiday demand prompts Estée Lauder (EL.US) to raise full-year outlook. On Monday, Estée Lauder raised its full-year sales and profit guidance, betting on strong demand for its high-end skincare and fragrance brands heading into the holiday season, while a year of CEO-led transformation initiatives drive growth. Despite economic uncertainty, consumers continue to spend on skincare and fragrance, bolstering luxury sales. As part of CEO’s Beauty Reimagined strategy, Estée Lauder is focusing on accelerating innovation, opening new channels and markets, leveraging AI for consumer insights and marketing, boosting direct-to-consumer investment, streamlining operations, and saving costs via job cuts. The company expects organic sales growth of 4% to 5.5% for fiscal 2027, above its previous 3% to 5% prediction, and now sees full-year adjusted EPS between $3.20 and $3.45, above prior $3.10 to $3.35 guidance.

Apple (AAPL.US) to release Q4 earnings post-market; new CEO debut in focus. Apple will release its fourth fiscal quarter results for 2026 (ending September) after the U.S. market closes Monday, followed by its first earnings call with new CEO John Ternus succeeding Tim Cook. Consensus forecasts call for revenue around $113.4 billion (+10.7% YoY), adjusted EPS around $1.99–2.00 (+8%–11% YoY); iPhone revenue expected at about $56.5 billion (+15%), and services at around $31.6 billion. Last Friday, Apple reclaimed the ‘king of stocks’ title from Nvidia ($5.03 trillion vs $4.93 trillion market cap), but memory price inflation’s impact on hardware margins and holiday quarter guidance are key issues to watch.

Elon Musk: Space-based AI computing capacity growth could outpace ground-based by end of 2028. Elon Musk predicts that by the end of 2028, monthly additions to space-deployed AI capacity could exceed additions on the ground, with the gap widening further in 2029. Previously, Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire forecasted SpaceX (SPCX.US) revenue would jump from $51.5 billion in 2026 to $731 billion in 2028, though supply chain and policy uncertainties remain. Musk said the outside world may be vastly underestimating SpaceX’s capital efficiency.

Tesla (TSLA.US) sees significant growth in new car registrations in the Nordics for October. According to data from “Mobility Sweden,” Norway’s OFV, and Denmark’s bilstatistik.dk, Tesla registrations soared 248% in Sweden, 131% in Norway, and 34% in Denmark in October. The rebound is attributed to a low base last year, higher fuel prices, government incentives, and sustained EV demand. Registration data for the UK and Germany—the two largest automotive markets in Europe—are expected later this week. Tesla previously stated its passenger vehicle order backlog at end-Q3 hit a four-year high.

Anthropic (ANT.US) plans to offer $3.5 billion in shares to Japanese investors in IPO. Filings show AI firm Anthropic will offer up to 552.9 billion yen (~$3.5 billion) in shares to Japanese investors during its US IPO. The proceeds from Japanese investors will go toward working capital, operating costs, and capex. No specific IPO size or valuation was disclosed. Reuters previously reported some investors discuss Anthropic’s valuation at about $1.5 trillion.

Alphabet (GOOGL.US) launches second euro bond offering this year. Alphabet, Google’s parent, has launched its second euro-denominated bond issue of the year, this time in seven tranches—another move by a major tech company to raise AI investment funds. According to a source, the bonds range from 2 to 19 years in maturity. The shortest fixed-rate notes initially guide a spread of about 60 basis points over mid-swaps, with the longest 19-year bonds targeting a spread of 205 to 210 basis points. Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank are handling the sale, expected to price later Monday.

Meta (META.US) rumored to be co-developing humanoid robots with Chinese firm Fourier? Fourier responds. Recent reports claim Meta is partnering with Chinese robotics company Fourier to develop a humanoid robot prototype within three months, with a second version already in progress. This robot, internally called Max by Meta, weighs about 48kg and is intended for research and experiments. Meta’s VP of robot products, Li-Chen Miller, reportedly spent nearly two months at Fourier’s Shanghai plant. Fourier’s founder and CEO Gu Jie responded, saying it’s inconvenient to comment at this time.

Major Economic Data and Event Preview

22:45 Beijing time: US October SPGI Manufacturing PMI final reading

23:00 Beijing time: US October ISM Manufacturing PMI

00:15 next day Beijing time: Speech by 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Earnings Preview

Tuesday morning: Apple, Palantir (PLTR.US), ON Semiconductor (ON.US), Roku (ROKU.US)

Tuesday pre-market: Philips (PHG.US), Shopify (SHOP.US), Pfizer (PFE.US), Marathon Petroleum (MPC.US), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP.US)