Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD awaits move beyond $50.00 to extend recovery from YTD low

Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher at the start of a new week, recovering a part of Friday's heavy losses to sub-$49.00 levels, or a fresh low since November 2025. The white metal, however, struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and currently trades around the $50.00 psychological mark, up 1.70% for the day.

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD remains capped near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $50.22 and retains a bearish tone below the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Despite this overhead structure, a slight improvement in momentum indicators warrants caution for bearish traders. In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands above zero with the line rising and the histogram expanding, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.31 has moved out of oversold territory, hinting at a rebound attempt rather than a clear bullish reversal.

Hence, any further strength beyond the 23.6% Fibo. might confront initial resistance at a broader congestion zone defined by the 38.2% level at $51.06 and the 50.0% retracement at $51.74. Higher up, the 100-period EMA at $52.29 aligns with the 61.8% Fibo. level at $52.42 to reinforce a dense supply band, ahead of the 78.6% retracement at $53.39 and the swing high region near $54.62. On the downside, the only meaningful structural support nearby is the recent cycle low around $48.86, where a break would reopen the path for deeper losses despite an improvement in intraday momentum.

XAG/USD 1-hour chart