Analyst Warns XRP Holders: Don’t Let This Backtest Fool You. Here’s why

XRP has been trading near $1.24 after breaking below the $1.27 support level. Crypto analyst CasiTrades sees the price action as significant. Former support at $1.27 is now acting as resistance, and the current backtest of that level is being watched closely.

CasiTrades issued a clear warning to followers: “Don’t let this backtest fool you.” The analyst believes the backtest holding as resistance sets up another leg lower.

The $1.10 Target

CasiTrades identifies $1.10 as the next major level to watch. The analyst describes it as XRP’s 0.786 Fibonacci support — a level that has not yet been backtested. That distinction matters in the analysis. A level that has never been tested carries more weight as a potential target.

The chart shared by CasiTrades shows the current price sitting near the 0.618 Fibonacci level at approximately $1.24. The projected path moves lower toward the 0.786 at $1.10 before any recovery takes shape.

Wave 2 Still in Play

The analyst connects this price action to Elliott Wave theory. CasiTrades has maintained that Wave 2 may not be complete, and the recent drop supports that view. Corrections within Wave 2 can be severe, and a short-term rally does not confirm a bottom.

The analyst added that the move to support should be “fast” and that “the recovery off it, spectacular.” That recovery, however, depends on XRP reaching and holding the $1.10 level first.

Fast Move Expected

CasiTrades does not expect prolonged consolidation on the way down. When asked by a follower whether XRP could consolidate for weeks before dropping, the analyst was clear: “This should be an impulse down, not consolidation! So much faster price action than we’ve been seeing.”

An impulse move carries different characteristics than a slow grind. XRP traders watching for gradual weakness may find themselves caught off guard if the drop accelerates.

Community Reaction

The analyst’s focus remains on the technical setup. XRP holds at $1.24 for now. The $1.10 level is next.