The Australian dollar continues to rise to a three-week high as hawkish remarks from central bank officials boost rate hike expectations.

智通财经2026/10/21 03:06

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The Australian dollar extended its rally in the Asian session on Wednesday, rising as much as 0.39% to 0.7029, marking its highest level since September 28 and poised for a fourth consecutive day of gains. Falling US Treasury yields, coupled with hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia officials, led investors to raise expectations for another rate hike in Australia.
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser stated that monetary tightening is having an effect, but the inflation outlook remains “significantly deteriorated,” in part due to high oil prices. He emphasized the need to stabilize inflation expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet on November 3 to discuss whether to implement a fifth rate hike this year.
The market reacted by raising the probability of a November rate hike from 30% at the start of the week to 44%, while December’s rate hike probability climbed to 64%. Third-quarter consumer price data will be released next week, and analysts expect core inflation to remain at 3.5%, well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range of 2% to 3%. Hauser stated that the inflation data will “clearly” exceed the central bank’s own forecasts.
The New Zealand dollar edged down slightly against the US dollar to 0.5678, after rising 0.4% overnight and hitting resistance at 0.5700. The next resistance level is at 0.5749, with support at the recent 18-month low of 0.5566. New Zealand’s consumer price data will be released on Thursday, with median market expectations showing third-quarter inflation slowing from 4.1% to 3.8%. However, recent increases in fuel and airfare costs suggest inflation will climb again this quarter, exceeding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forecast of 3.9%. Market expectations indicate there is close to a 90% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise rates by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting.

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The Australian dollar continues to rise to a three-week high as hawkish remarks from central bank officials boost rate hike expectations.

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