New Zealand Dollar has one CPI release left before the RBNZ

A fourth straight daily gain took NZD/USD to its highest since September 23 on Tuesday. It rose from just above 0.5650 to just under 0.5700 and ended near that level, about 135 pips above the October 14 low that was its lowest since April 2025.

Swaps price about an 80% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raises its 2.75% Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.00% on October 28. Fed futures price a hold the same day at about 83%. Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the last before that decision, and its 0.8% quarterly forecast is the RBNZ's own projection to the decimal.

Crude Oil fell on Tuesday, and New Zealand has bought all its refined fuel abroad since its only refinery shut in 2022. The annual trade deficit widened to NZD $6.18 billion in September from $5.61 billion, so cheaper fuel trims the bill New Zealand has to pay for in foreign currency.

On the calendar

Stats NZ releases third-quarter CPI at 21:45 GMT on Wednesday, with annual inflation forecast at 3.8% after 4.1%, a tenth under the RBNZ's 3.9% projection. A figure under that projection bears on whether the October 28 hike still goes ahead.

The US weekly jobless claims count, due Thursday at 12:30 GMT, is forecast to rise to 200K from 199K. Friday's S&P Global and University of Michigan surveys, at 13:45 GMT and 14:00 GMT, close out the US week before the Fed's own October 28 decision.

On the charts

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is about 20 pips above Tuesday's high, with the 200-day EMA near 0.5800. The climb off its October 14 low has recovered almost a third of the drop from just under 0.6000 in August.

NZD/USD daily chart