Roadster is just an appetizer? Renowned investor predicts: SpaceX (SPCX.US) may announce the acquisition of Tesla (TSLA.US) within weeks at $420 per share

According to Finet News APP, Gary Black, Managing Director of Future Fund, recently tweeted his prediction that SpaceX (SPCX.US) may announce the acquisition of Tesla (TSLA.US) in an all-stock deal within weeks, viewing the launch of the flying version of the Roadster as the opportunity to integrate Elon Musk’s companies.

This well-known investor stated on social platform X: "I agree with the viewpoint that the only purpose of the Roadster launch event is to justify a merger between SpaceX and Tesla. My judgment: within the next few weeks, it will be officially announced that SpaceX will acquire Tesla using its own shares, at $420 per share; the completion of this deal may take a year."

However, while making this prediction, he was skeptical about the financial impact of the Roadster. Black estimates that the sports car may contribute only $0.06 to Tesla's earnings per share in 2029, accounting for just 1.1% of the consensus-adjusted earnings per share of $5.40. He also expects its overall brand boost to be limited, stating that few drivers would prioritize sub-one-second acceleration or aerial flips as reasons to buy a car.

"Undeniably, the technology and the entire launch event were very impressive," he commented, while also questioning the investor enthusiasm for a niche product that is still two to three years away from market launch. "Thirdly, Tesla shares have historically sold off after launch-day hype, and this time will be no exception."

Prior to this event, Black was actually not optimistic about the merger plan. He had previously argued that an all-stock acquisition would be constrained by Tesla’s lower valuation multiples, and share price volatility before the deal closes could erode the acquisition premium paid in SpaceX shares. "We remain cautious on Tesla due to its high valuation, pressure on earnings expectations, and our belief that unsupervised autonomous driving technology will eventually become commoditized," he said.

Roadster Debut Fuels Merger Speculation Between Tesla and SpaceX

Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, also believes there are similar motives behind the Roadster launch: "The Roadster event has two core takeaways. First, it's an engineering showcase with little commercial value aside from eclipsing legacy automakers. Second, Musk is eager to combine Tesla and SpaceX."

Musk himself reposted the livestream and commented "Tesla x SpaceX". The collaboration between the two companies also extends to the research facility Terafab plans to build at the Texas Gigafactory, aiming to design and test about 10 chips annually. "I believe the original intention for Tesla and SpaceX to jointly build a chip factory is to attempt high-risk, high-reward frontier projects like this," Musk said in an interview.

On the other hand, Morningstar is more optimistic about the Roadster’s commercial prospects than Black or Munster, stating that its hardcore engineering capabilities may attract buyers to Tesla's broader product line. However, the firm still predicts that once ramped up, annual deliveries of the Roadster will be less than 2,000 units.

It is understood that the model has experienced multiple delays, and Musk is currently targeting 2028 for production start. The reservation deposit for the Performance and Thrust versions are $50,000 and $250,000, respectively, with no guarantee of delivery. There are also plans for an invitation-only Rocket version.

Wall Street Comments on the Merger Deal

Barclays pointed out last week that an all-stock acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX is the most likely deal structure. The bank outlined two possible timelines: either an announcement around Tesla’s annual shareholders meeting, or a separate announcement within 6 to 12 months. "While we doubt there will be much financial synergy, the real value is in vertical integration," analysts stated.

The firm also believes the deal would connect Tesla’s Robotaxi and Optimus projects with SpaceX’s AI and space infrastructure, while also simplifying Terafab’s decision-making and helping Musk maintain voting control. However, shareholder approval and antitrust review remain potential hurdles. Baird also expects that a potential SpaceX merger will become the dominant topic in Tesla’s near-term narrative.