BUZZ - Brokerage opinion: Analysts believe that unexpected gains from refining operations will boost ExxonMobil's third-quarter results.

October 19 - ** ExxonMobil XOM.N said on Friday (link) that a rise in third-quarter refining margins may boost downstream profit by $4.5 billion quarter-on-quarter

** Out of 27 brokerages, 10 rate XOM a “buy” or higher, 17 rate it “hold”; the median price target is $180 — data compiled by LSEG

Refining margins will drive earnings growth

** JPMorgan (“Overweight” rating) raised its price target from $166 to $186; expects a significant improvement in the energy products margin environment and strong performance for specialty products this quarter, which will offset falling liquid product prices in the upstream segment

** Management is expected to maintain a cautious outlook for 2027 on the earnings call, particularly regarding capital allocation and shareholder returns

** UBS (“Buy” rating) expects the US energy products business to set an earnings record in the third quarter, with XOM’s Gulf Coast refining operations benefiting from strong operations and margin environment

** Piper Sandler (“Neutral” rating) maintains a $185 price target, believing that despite lower realized liquid product prices, Guyana entitlements issues, and weak chemical margins, stronger refining margins should support third-quarter results

** Jefferies (“Buy” rating) raised its price target from $200 to $206

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