Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1053 GMT - Investor expectations for a boom, or above-trend growth combined with above-trend inflation, in the global economy reached the highest level in more than four years in October, according to Bank of America's global fund manager survey. A net 47% of investors expect a boom in the next 12 months, up from 38% in September and the most since February 2022. However, a net 45% of investors expect stagflation, or below-trend growth combined with above-trend inflation, albeit down from 50% in September. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1020 GMT - The Korean won and Taiwanese dollar are among Asia's worst-performing currencies as the benchmark Kospi and Taiex lead regional equity markets lower, weighed by a selloff in chip stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.7% overnight. "In our view the dominant theme was a memory selloff," Saxo Bank says in a note. South Korean memory-chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix slumped 7.4% and 10%, respectively, dragging the Kospi down 5.5%. Taiwan's Taiex shed 1.9% as index heavyweight TSMC, the world's largest contract chip maker, lost 2.0%. The U.S. dollar rises 0.3% to 1,339 won, on track for its strongest daily gain in nearly two weeks, according to LSEG. The dollar climbs 0.7% to NT$32.15, on course for its biggest advance in more than seven months. (farah.elias@wsj.com)

1018 GMT - The dollar continues to be viewed as overvalued in October's Bank of America global fund manager survey. A net 36% of investors say the dollar is overvalued this month, compared to 37% a month ago. Meanwhile, a net 8% of investors say the euro is overvalued, compared to a net 3% saying it was undervalued in September. A net 3% think sterling is overvalued, down from 13% last month.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1017 GMT - Inflation expectations have fallen this month to their lowest level since January 2025, Bank of America's global fund manager survey shows. A net 5% of investors in October expect lower global inflation in 12 months' time, compared to 4% in September. This reflects expectations that Brent crude prices will ease by year-end to $94 a barrel from $104 currently. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1016 GMT - Investors increased allocations to bonds in October, according to Bank of America's monthly global fund manager survey. They also find that pessimism on bond yields fell to the lowest since May 2025. "Just net 1% of FMS [fund manager survey] investors expect higher long-term rates, down from 15% in September," the survey finds. Investors have also increased allocation to Japanese and U.K. stocks, as well as utilities, the survey says. They reduced allocation to banks, U.S. stocks and consumer discretionary. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1015 GMT - The cost of insuring euro-denominated credit against default rises amid a fresh selloff in AI-related and technology stocks, even as oil prices fall. "Investors are increasingly worried that cracks are starting to show in the AI trade," says AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth in a note. "There are growing fears that companies are investing so much money into AI without a clear idea of the timing or scale of financial payback," he says. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 2 basis points to 313bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1014 GMT - Investors have turned negative on the global growth outlook in October, according to Bank of America's latest global fund manager survey. A net 4% of investors now expect the economy to weaken over the next 12 months. That compares to a net 8% of investors expecting a stronger economy in the September survey. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1012 GMT - An overwhelming 76% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold at its Oct. 28 monetary-policy decision, Bank of America's October global fund manager survey finds. This is in line with current market pricing, where investors assign a low 19% probability of a hike this month, LSEG data show. The timing of the next Fed meeting is just a few days ahead of the U.S. mid-term elections. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1011 GMT - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hasn't reached levels where investors would offload stocks for bonds, Bank of America's October global fund manager survey finds. "Investors say 5.9% is 10-year Treasury yield required to flip from stocks to bonds," the survey says. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 24-year high of 5.365% last Wednesday. It last trades 5 basis points lower at 5.193%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1010 GMT - The dollar eases as Treasury yields fall and the global bond selloff loses momentum, BankPro's Paolo Broccardo says in a note. Lower oil prices also weigh, moderating the inflation impulse that has supported Federal Reserve tightening expectations. The dollar could remain under mild pressure until Wednesday's inflation data provides clearer direction, he says. A firmer reading could boost near-term Fed tightening expectations, lifting yields and the dollar. A softer print could challenge the December rate-rise currently priced, lowering yields and the dollar, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.3% to 102.302 after reaching an 18-month high of 102.607 Monday. Ten-year Treasury yields fall 5.2 basis points to 5.192%, according to Tradeweb. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1004 GMT - A hypothetical run on a global stablecoin could potentially spill over to the traditional financial system as the sectors become increasingly dependent on each other, an international body monitoring financial stability says. Stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to the U.S. dollar or other currencies. Damage could spread via reserve-asset fire sales and banking deposit withdrawals to fund redemptions, as well as in foreign exchange markets where they are used for cross-border transactions, the Financial Stability Board wrote in an Oct. 12 report. "In stress, round-the-clock access to and the speed of trading on secondary markets may increase the potential speed and magnitude of sell offs, putting pressure on the stablecoin's peg if redemptions cannot keep up with demand," the FSB says. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)

0943 GMT - Bitcoin rises marginally as Treasury yields ease but the cryptocurrency is struggling to build momentum, IG analyst Chris Beauchamp says in a note. Bitcoin gains remain limited after a sharp retreat from the seven-month high of $87,315 reached on Sept. 21, according to LSEG. "The price has fallen through and then re-entered the $82,814-$82,035 support area, and buyers have yet to show real conviction," Beauchamp says. The pressure partly reflects the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates further. The recent easing in Treasury yields takes the edge off the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like bitcoin, he says. However, crypto exchange-traded fund flows have turned negative. Bitcoin rises 0.5% to $83,419, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 13, 2026 06:53 ET (10:53 GMT)