SpaceX (SPCX.US) has 80% upside potential hidden in Starship? Morgan Stanley: The 15th test flight will be a major catalyst

According to Zhihui Finance APP, Morgan Stanley has stated that SpaceX’s (SPCX.US) upcoming 15th Starship flight mission may represent a significant step toward making its next-generation rocket fully reusable, potentially expanding the company’s opportunities in the satellite communications and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors.

In a research report released last Sunday, Chief Analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an “Overweight” rating on SpaceX with a target price of $300 per share, implying about 84% upside from Monday’s closing price of $163.42. Jonas indicated that the next two Starship missions could reshape investor expectations regarding the company’s growth outlook.

The 15th Starship test flight is tentatively scheduled for November 8 local time and may include an attempt to catch the returning Starship vehicle using the launch tower’s mechanical arms. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk recently mentioned that the company hopes to try this maneuver, but it has not yet been confirmed. According to preliminary air traffic notices cited by Morgan Stanley, the 16th test flight could take place as early as December 10. Neither date has been officially confirmed by SpaceX.

For investors, the significance lies not only in the technological accomplishment of recovering the spacecraft. If reusable technology is realized, launch costs will drop significantly, and the size of payloads SpaceX can send to orbit in a single mission will increase markedly, thereby improving the profitability model for its Starlink satellite network and supporting the company’s expansion into emerging sectors such as orbital compute power and space manufacturing.

Morgan Stanley estimates that a single Starship mission carrying the new generation Starlink satellites could deploy a bandwidth scale equivalent to one to two months’ worth of Falcon 9 launches. The report notes that each Starlink V3 satellite has downlink capacity about ten times that of the V2 Mini satellites launched by Falcon 9.

After deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites on its 14th flight, Jonas expects that the next mission will carry a similar or even greater payload. Starship can carry up to 60 of these satellites, providing an opportunity to accelerate deployment and reduce the number of launches required to expand the Starlink network.

The analyst warns that technical challenges remain significant, especially given recurrent engine failures in recent Starship test flights. All three flights involving the V3 configuration experienced booster engine issues prior to splashdown, with two also suffering vacuum engine failures on the spacecraft. Although the number of booster engines successfully reignited during landing attempts has improved, further setbacks could delay hardware reuse progress and restrict the pace of launches in 2027.

Morgan Stanley expects that SpaceX will not attempt to catch a booster during the 15th test flight due to engine failures on the previous mission. However, the firm considers the simultaneous recovery of both spacecraft and booster, followed by successful V3 hardware reuse in a single flight, to be a key milestone for achieving the program’s commercial objectives.

The firm’s $300 target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation: $118 per share for connectivity, $165 for enterprise AI, $8 for external launch business, and $8 each for the X platform and consumer AI business. This valuation underscores Morgan Stanley’s view that Starship’s largest financial contribution may come from driving growth in other businesses, rather than solely from commercial launches.

Jonas estimates that at around $160 per share, investors are valuing SpaceX’s launch and connectivity business at approximately $127 per share, with only about $33 attributed to AI. This implied AI valuation is about three times the expected 2028 enterprise value/sales multiple for a certain cloud infrastructure business, suggesting that if the company successfully implements its compute strategy, there could be significant room for stock appreciation.

Morgan Stanley points out that further progress in Starship R&D, new AI product launches, and additional cloud infrastructure contracts priced at roughly $30–$50 per watt, are potential catalysts to drive the stock toward the $300 target. The firm also sees opportunities in expanding satellite connectivity and deploying compute infrastructure in orbit.

The report notes that for the stock to fall to around $100 over the next 12 months, several conditions would likely need to be met simultaneously: a significant slowdown in AI development, a major Starship test failure, and large-scale equity dilution. Other risks include slower-than-expected Starlink user growth, higher infrastructure capex, regulatory approval delays, and weaker-than-expected monetization of enterprise AI services.

Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX's earnings per share to be $0.55 in 2026, rising to $2.54 in 2027, and to $6.01 in 2028. These estimates suggest earnings growth will accelerate sharply, though the company’s valuation still depends on ambitious growth assumptions and successful execution across multiple business lines.

The firm’s core thesis is that progress toward full reusability of Starship could be an important growth driver, with the 15th test flight serving as an initial test of whether these expectations can be met.