El Niño continues to intensify and may become a key driver for commodities in 2027

智通财经2026/10/07 11:36

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(1) El Niño continues to strengthen, with the latest August Oceanic Niño Index reaching 2.2°C, firmly placing it in the "very strong" category. (2) In comparison, during the 2015-2016 super El Niño event, this index was around 1.7°C in August and subsequently peaked at 2.6°C in December. (3) If this seasonal pattern persists, the coming months could point to an unusually strong or even potentially record-breaking El Niño. (4) The impact on commodities is already evident on both supply and demand sides. (5) Weather-related supply risks are supporting agricultural markets such as sugar, cocoa, and coffee, while the possibility of a milder winter in the Northern Hemisphere could suppress heating demand and dampen natural gas consumption. (6) The more persistent and stronger the current El Niño becomes, the greater the risk that weather will become a more significant driver of commodity prices by 2027.

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