Altcoin Risk Model Falls to 15 as Crypto Analyst Sees Bull Market Starting

A crypto analyst says early signs of a new bull cycle are forming, with low altcoin risk levels and an expanding business cycle suggesting improving conditions for assets like ONDO and Chainlink.

What the Risk Model Says

The analyst Crypto Capital Ventures said in a video that the altcoin risk score sits at 15, a low reading. According to him, when the model showed similar low readings, prices were higher one year later about 90% of the time.

The model blends price swings, trading volume, and game theory inputs. He said the altcoin market cap chart has stayed in what he calls an opportunity zone all year, and that he has urged followers to prepare throughout that time.

A Second Signal From the Business Cycle Index

He said a second gauge supports the case. His business cycle index has moved into expansion for the first time since September 2020, when the previous expansion began.

The analyst called the signal brand new and described the contraction before it as the longest on his chart. In his framing, that macro reading, paired with the low altcoin risk score, makes the current window more attractive than either signal alone.

Targets Cited for Chainlink and Ondo

• Chainlink: A 1.618 Fibonacci extension of its 2021 high points to about $85 per token, which he called a base case. A $100 billion market value would require a gain near 4,000% from current levels, he said.
• Ondo: The token’s all-time high is just above $2, and its 1.618 extension sits at $4.50. He said he expects Ondo to outperform Chainlink and sees an easier path to its target.

Bitcoin Levels to Watch

The analyst flagged three Bitcoin pullback zones. The 50-week moving average near $77,000, the 20-week near $71,000, and the 200-week near $65,000. He said Bitcoin did not fall back below the 50-week average in earlier recoveries once it had moved above it, though he allowed that more sideways trading is possible.

Related: Glassnode Says Altcoin Season Has Flipped On—But Are Altcoins Actually Taking Share From Bitcoin?