Bitcoin’s (BTC) MVRV-Z Score has failed for the first time to signal the bear market bottom, as the June 2026 low saw the Z-score remain positive rather than dipping below zero like in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
U.S. tariff announcements, reversals, and geopolitical policy headlines have repeatedly shifted risk sentiment, leaving BTC’s price action less consistent with its previous cycle patterns. J.P. Morgan has also noted that delays and reversals in the rollout of President Donald J. Trump’s administration tariffs added to market volatility and raised concerns about global growth.
Historically, Bitcoin’s major cycle bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022 saw the MVRV-Z Score touch or fall below zero into the “green zone” of deep undervaluation. This cycle was different because Trump’s administration tariff announcements, reversals, and policy shocks created a more volatile macro backdrop.
Bitcoin peaked near $125,000-$126,000 in October 2025 before falling roughly 53% to around $58,500-$60,000 in June 2026. However, the MVRV-Z Score only dropped to the low of 0.18–0.22 and stayed positive instead of entering negative territory. By late September 2026, the Z-Score had recovered to roughly 0.99–1.04 while BTC traded near $83,000-$84,000, with a realized price of around $53,500.
Trump administration tariff announcements, escalations, pauses, and reversals materially changed Bitcoin’s market structure in 2025–2026, moving it away from the cleaner cycle dynamics of previous eras. On April 2, 2025, when Liberation Day tariffs were announced, there was a sudden risk-off move, while on October 10, 2025, Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports triggered the largest crypto liquidation event on record, wiping out over 19 billion in leveraged positions in less than 24 hours.
Subsequent tariff threats, escalations, pauses, and reversals continued to drive abrupt volatility and rapid sentiment shifts. This cumulatively created a more headline-driven market, with more corrections and relief rallies, constrained by the long-term capitulation seen in earlier cycles.
Trump’s public financial disclosures and company filings reveal significant crypto exposure and income, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, World Liberty Financial, and the $TRUMP meme coin. According to sources, the four major crypto businesses owned by the Trump family have earned approximately $2.3 billion from mid-2024 to April 2026, while external investors have suffered massive losses.
Meanwhile, any claims that Trump, his family, or associates traded crypto before his presidential announcements, such as the tariff posts, remain unproven. No public evidence has established that they used non-public information to trade around those announcements, leaving such claims in the realm of allegation rather than verified fact.
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});As observed in the 2025–2026 cycle, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score alone may no longer suffice to pinpoint BTC bottoms, with significant market lows occurring without the indicator hitting its customary low.
A more effective method would be to utilize several different data sources, such as NUPL, STH/LTH MVRV divergence, realized price bands, SOPR, and supply in profit/loss. Derivatives positioning, consisting of funding rates, open interest, liquidation clusters, and options implied volatility, provides further context.
Moreover, liquidity and flow metrics, including spot ETF net flows and stablecoin supply dynamics and exchange reserves, can offer insights into the overall market. Macro and policy catalysts also include interest-rate expectations, tariff developments, geopolitical risks, and dollar strength.
