Bank of America raises Brent crude oil price forecast due to continued tensions in the Middle East

Reuters, September 22 - Bank of America has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2026, stating that geopolitical tensions are expected to persist through the end of the year, which has become the bank’s base case scenario.

• According to a research report released on Monday, the bank raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2026 from $83 per barrel to $95 per barrel.

• Bank of America noted that the disruption of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz may have reached a peak of about 14 million barrels per day, with recent average levels down 4 to 8 million barrels per day compared to pre-war figures.

• Although alternate shipping routes and escorted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have somewhat mitigated supply gaps, damaged infrastructure and escalating geopolitical tensions have made it difficult for oil supply to recover quickly. The bank expects Brent crude oil’s average price in 2027 to hover around $80 per barrel.

• Bank of America stated that if disruptions persist into spring 2027, or if damage to oil infrastructure worsens, near-term Brent crude contracts could surge above $150 per barrel, thus dampening global demand.

• Goldman Sachs and HSBC (link) also raised their forecasts for Brent crude oil prices earlier this month, citing expectations that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will continue into next year.

  
  

(To facilitate non-English speakers, Reuters provides automated translations of its reporting into several other languages. As automated translation may contain inaccuracies or lack necessary context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of the automated translation and provides it solely for reader convenience. Reuters is not responsible for any damage or loss caused by the use of the automated translation function.)