Bridgewater: Most AI infrastructure trades have already been priced in, only holding a “very small position”

Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds, is cooling its enthusiasm for AI infrastructure investment themes. Bridgewater's Co-Chief Investment Officer Greg Jensen stated that most of the upside from AI infrastructure-related trades has already been priced in by the market, and the fund is now turning its focus to other investment opportunities.

According to technology media outlet The Information, Jensen commented frankly, "Two years ago, this was a great trade, but now most of it has been priced in." He revealed that Bridgewater currently maintains only "a very small position" in AI infrastructure, and is shifting its investment focus to trades related to "disruption and application" brought by AI. This statement marks a major strategic adjustment in AI investment logic by this large-scale hedge fund.

For the market, Bridgewater's change of stance carries significant reference value. AI infrastructure concept stocks—especially those in the chip and data center supply chain—previously benefited from market expectations of a surge in computing power demand, with valuations rising continuously. Bridgewater's signal to reduce holdings implies that this "picks and shovels"-style investment logic is now difficult to provide a sufficient risk-reward ratio at current valuation levels.

Modeling Through 2028: Limited Upside and Ongoing Risks

Jensen disclosed that Bridgewater has conducted systematic modeling of global data center construction scale and its impact on all parts of the supply chain, extending through 2028, and is already working on forecast models for 2029.

He pointed out that demand growth potential for AI "picks and shovels" assets—usually referring to chips and other infrastructure—also faces real-world risks such as financing challenges and construction delays.

Jensen remains moderately optimistic about demand prospects through 2028 but spoke cautiously: "We still think the market may slightly underestimate the actual construction scale by 2028, but the gap is not large, and this judgment is based on the absence of major disruptions."

This means that—even if there is some upside—the margin is already quite limited and highly contingent on smooth progress at both the macro and execution levels.

According to reports, Bridgewater's position adjustment reflects its assessment of the stage of the AI investment cycle. Jensen stated clearly that the fund is "now more interested in AI disruption and application trades," signaling a pivot from betting on large-scale AI infrastructure deployments to focusing on the industry disruption opportunities stemming from the adoption and proliferation of AI technologies.

This shift in logic serves as a forward-looking signal in the investment community: when the excess returns from infrastructure investment are gradually priced in by the market, capital often begins searching for the next narrative that has yet to be fully reflected—namely, which industries will be disrupted by widespread AI adoption, or which companies will be the first to benefit from it.

Analysts believe that Bridgewater has not exited AI-related investments entirely, but has chosen to rebalance its position structure to cope with the reality of declining infrastructure theme cost-effectiveness in the current valuation environment.