Everbright Futures 0908 Gold Review: Gold Prices Continue Sideways, Focus on Changes in Rate Hike Expectations

On September 7, COMEX gold continued its sideways fluctuation, closing at $4,452.0 per ounce, down 0.55%. Domestically, SHFE gold night session hovered around 960 points, closing at 954.1 yuan per gram, down 0.04%.

On the news front, the US-Canada trade war has escalated, with Canada planning to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on hundreds of US products starting Tuesday. Trump threatened to ban Canadian company Bombardier’s aircraft from being sold in the US. In terms of geopolitics, Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities were attacked again, and the traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level since May. As for central banks, by the end of August, the People’s Bank of China reported gold reserves of 76.73 million ounces (about 2,386.57 tons), an increase of 650,000 ounces (about 20.22 tons) from the previous month. The People’s Bank of China has now increased its gold holdings for 22 consecutive months. Data from CME shows that expectations for rate hikes remain on the rise. If the September FOMC does raise rates, it will signal a reversal in the policy tone of the easing cycle that began in 2024. However, influenced by US Treasuries, a rate hike is expected to reflect market consensus. Still, expectations of future hikes are fluctuating, and there is significant uncertainty around the September Federal Reserve meeting, so prices may also fluctuate. From September 10 to 11, the US August PPI and CPI data will be released successively, which could provide strong guidance for the Federal Reserve’s decision-making and may trigger increased intra-day market volatility around the data releases.

Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

Author: Shi Yueming

Professional qualification: F03097365

Trading advisory qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan