1. Fundamentals Overview: Widening Policy Divergences
After the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data, clear divergences have emerged in US monetary policy tendencies:
Bond Market Pressure: Yields on US medium- and long-term bonds remain high, gradually pushing up future debt costs.
Policy Orientation: Trump still favors rate cuts, and the market is waiting for further guidance from news developments.
Industry Developments: SK Hynix is quickly expanding its share of sixth-generation 10nm-class DRAM process (1c nm) production capacity; the South Korean KOSPI index rose 1.00% intraday, with Hynix opening higher.
With policy and industry trends intertwined, short-term directional choices will likely require news-driven catalysts.
2. Technical Analysis and Trading Plan
ETH | On Hold, Waiting for Breakout
The 4-hour chart is oscillating within the 2535–2354 range; on the hourly chart, it is consolidating at high levels in the 2535–2468 zone, structurally indicating a need to break higher.
Trading strategy: Watch for breakout signals; primarily remain on the sidelines. Pay close attention to a high-volume breakout near the upper boundary of 2535; if it holds firmly, consider following the momentum; if it breaks downward, reassess the structure.
Sandisk | Trend Intact, Wait for Entry
The bullish trend remains intact, with key 4-hour support at 1739. The current price is repeatedly testing resistance near the previous high of 1823; short-term moves are trending higher, but there is no clear entry signal until a pullback develops.
Today’s main focus is on two opportunities:
Trend-following long position after the 4-hour breakout above 1823;
Fresh entry signal if it pulls back to the 1739 support level.
Hynix | Breaking Resistance, Unlocking Upside
The price has already broken above the resistance at 1380; if it consolidates further around 1404, the upside will be unlocked.
Entry timing reference:
Wait for a pullback long position opportunity after solidifying above 1404;
Or look for an entry opportunity after a major pullback to 1390.
Upside targets are 1453 / 1500 / 1567 in sequence.
3. Summary of the Day
ETH: Consolidating near highs, stay cautious before a breakout;
Sandisk: Bullish trend, consider entry only on a breakout above 1823 or a pullback to 1739;
Hynix: Holding above 1404 is the key confirmation, with targets up to 1453–1567.
At this stage of market divergence, be patient and wait for clear signals; it's better to miss a trade than make a wrong one.
If you want more details and specific trading strategies, see you in tonight’s live session where we’ll break down the market in real time and explain the logic behind each move as we analyze the candlestick charts live.
