Oil Price Today (September 8): Crude oil at $97 as simmering tensions raise supply worries. Experts weigh in
By:EconomicTimes
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Oil prices extended their gains on Tuesday as the risk of a prolonged Middle East conflict increased after Iran threatened retaliation against any further US attacks on its assets, raising concerns about possible disruptions to crude supplies.
Brent had climbed to its highest level since July 24 in the previous session as traders continued to price at a risk premium amid rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.
US forces on Saturday struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one near Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, according to US Central Command. The attacks followed strikes by Iran's Revolutionary Guards on US warships operating in the region.
Goldman Sachs has also warned that Brent could rise to $120 a barrel if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit route, persist. Its base case, however, assumes that tensions in the Middle East will eventually ease.
The bank expects Brent to average $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 a barrel next year, while warning that the risks remain tilted to the upside if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea continue for longer than expected.
Citi has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from $80, citing a longer-than-expected timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
ANZ analysts have also lifted their short-term Brent forecast to $95 a barrel and warned that prices could move higher if the Middle East conflict intensifies. They said a prolonged standoff involving calibrated military action by the US and Iran appeared to be the most likely scenario and could delay the return of full Middle East supply.
The front-month Brent contract is trading at a premium of around $20 over the October 2027 contract, or roughly a fifth of its price. This reflects the market paying a steep premium for barrels available today compared with barrels for next year. The bias in Brent remains positive, according to Anindya Bannerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities.
Bannerjee said $90 is now a strong floor for Brent, while $102 is the major resistance level. A break above $102 could trigger significant upside momentum, with prices potentially moving towards $115-$116. Until then, Brent is expected to trade with a positive bias below that cap.
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Iran said on Monday that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including US oil and gas interests, could be vulnerable. The warning came after tit-for-tat strikes over the weekend, with no indication of a diplomatic breakthrough.
Crude oil price on September 8
Brent crude futures rose 34 cents, or 0.35%, to $97.34 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.15, or 1.26%, to $92.63 a barrel.Brent had climbed to its highest level since July 24 in the previous session as traders continued to price at a risk premium amid rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.
US forces on Saturday struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one near Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, according to US Central Command. The attacks followed strikes by Iran's Revolutionary Guards on US warships operating in the region.
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Where is oil headed?
The length of the disruption will be crucial for oil prices. JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of disruption could add around $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices. If the disruption continues for three months, the bank expects average monthly Brent prices to reach around $114 a barrel.Goldman Sachs has also warned that Brent could rise to $120 a barrel if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit route, persist. Its base case, however, assumes that tensions in the Middle East will eventually ease.
The bank expects Brent to average $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 a barrel next year, while warning that the risks remain tilted to the upside if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea continue for longer than expected.
Citi has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from $80, citing a longer-than-expected timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
ANZ analysts have also lifted their short-term Brent forecast to $95 a barrel and warned that prices could move higher if the Middle East conflict intensifies. They said a prolonged standoff involving calibrated military action by the US and Iran appeared to be the most likely scenario and could delay the return of full Middle East supply.
The front-month Brent contract is trading at a premium of around $20 over the October 2027 contract, or roughly a fifth of its price. This reflects the market paying a steep premium for barrels available today compared with barrels for next year. The bias in Brent remains positive, according to Anindya Bannerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities.
Bannerjee said $90 is now a strong floor for Brent, while $102 is the major resistance level. A break above $102 could trigger significant upside momentum, with prices potentially moving towards $115-$116. Until then, Brent is expected to trade with a positive bias below that cap.
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