Anthropic is expected to surpass SpaceX to become the top IPO, but needs to turn AI growth into Microsoft-level profit margins

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Anthropic is poised to surpass SpaceX (SPCX.US) in the largest stock issuance in history, but PitchBook analysts warn that the AI giant may need to achieve Microsoft’s (MSFT.US) approximately 70% gross margin to support its massive compute commitments.

To break SpaceX’s IPO record, Anthropic would need an issuance valuation exceeding $1.8 trillion and a fundraising scale surpassing SpaceX’s $86 billion (including the greenshoe mechanism), rather than simply matching its $965 billion private valuation.

Anthropic Achieves "Unprecedented" Profit Milestone in the AI Industry

PitchBook Senior Analyst Harrison Rolfes stated that Anthropic’s reported positive adjusted operating profit is "unprecedented among AI companies." Second-quarter revenue soared to more than $11.5 billion, up from $4.73 billion in the first quarter and $787 million in the same period last year.

In July, Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate exceeded $65 billion, equivalent to $5.4 billion per month—seven times higher than the same period last year. Rolfes mentioned this figure is about one-third of Anthropic’s projected 2028 revenue, indicating the company may be on track with its plan, although the run rate does not guarantee future sales. Investors currently lack audited GAAP profits, cash flow, gross margin, and customer concentration data, which are expected to be disclosed in Anthropic’s S-1 prospectus.

Anthropic’s $80 Billion Compute Power Gamble

Meanwhile, Anthropic has reportedly committed $35 billion to Lambda, which is backed by Nvidia, to develop 350 megawatts of data center capacity in Texas for Hut 8 (HUT.US); previously, the company also inked another $45 billion compute agreement for a West Virginia campus with Nscale.

Confronted with these massive commitments, Rolfes estimates Anthropic’s gross margin is about 44%, far below Microsoft (MSFT.US) and ServiceNow’s (NOW.US) ~70%. “That figure seems realistic, but it’s not enough to compete with SaaS companies. It’s also not attractive enough for public market investors, because we know Anthropic has significant committed extensions out to 2030-32,” he said. “To support these commitments, you need to raise your gross margin to about 70%.”

Claude Code Drives Anthropic’s Growth

“Claude Code is the biggest catalyst,” Rolfes said, noting that this coding tool surpassed a $2.5 billion annualized revenue run rate as early as February. Enterprise customers contribute 80% of Anthropic’s revenue, with more than 1,000 customers each exceeding $1 million in annualized spending as of April. Rolfes indicated that Claude is entering “production-level API workflows” rather than being limited to “isolated experiments.”

However, it’s still unclear how much revenue is contractually locked in. “It appears to be repeatable but not necessarily contractual,” he noted, adding that investors need more information about retention rate, contract terms, and committed usage.

Rolfes also expects Anthropic to gradually shift away from subscription models and ultimately move to charging per completed task, making it easier for enterprises to forecast costs. “Anthropic needs to find a way to build a durable revenue model—one that’s easy to track,” he said.

Anthropic Deepens Its Enterprise AI Layout

Last week, Anthropic expanded its partnership with Salesforce (CRM), launching Claudeforce—a Claude plug-in offering 37 pre-built sales skills. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff called it an “industry first,” adding that it “represents the future operating model for all enterprise systems.”

After previously receiving “substantial feedback,” the company also canceled its controversial 30-day data retention requirement (for commercial customers). The alternative, “Enterprise Frontier Safeguards,” allows companies to control how their data is reviewed, stored, and monitored—without manual review by Anthropic.

How do retail investors view Anthropic and SpaceX? On the Stocktwits platform, retail sentiment toward Anthropic is “bullish,” with high volume of information; while for SpaceX, sentiment is “bearish” and discussion activity is at a “very low” level.