XRP risks deeper drop as analyst identifies $0.50 ‘launchpad’ before next rally

The bull trap phase

Grace observed that past market cycles for XRP included a deceptive rally following the initial decline, which often appeared to signal recovery. Instead, these counter-trend rallies resulted in new lows. In 2018, XRP’s bull trap retraced 103.78%. The 2021 cycle produced a retracement of 176.42%, and in the most recent cycle, XRP has already seen a 72.79% retracement.

XRP recently surged more than 50% in just 65 hours, with the total upward move exceeding 70%. Grace classified this rebound as consistent with previous bull trap phases. She emphasized that XRP “is still in that phase” and further noted, “We’re not at the launchpad yet.”

Every XRP bull run began from the same launchpad. Each correction produced fake bottoms that resembled bull traps. The cycle completed only after the range broke and the real bottom formed. XRP remains in that corrective stage, not yet at the launchpad level.

The $0.50 launchpad and price outlook

Grace identified the launchpad area near $0.50, a level XRP has not seen since its dramatic surge of 500% in late 2024. Current prices remain well above that proposed support, implying that a further drop would be necessary to reach the accumulation zone highlighted in her charts. In both previous cycles, XRP only began a strong new uptrend after a significant retracement to the base of the range, marked visually by green accumulation zones.

Her analysis suggests the current sharp rally represents a transitional stage. While the bull trap appears strong, she indicated that history points to lower levels forming before any durable recovery can begin.

Historical structure shows that each prior XRP advance required a full retracement to the launchpad area. These accumulation regions set the stage for major breakouts but required patience during periods of decline.

Potential opportunity for buyers

Should XRP fall back toward the $0.50 launchpad, Grace sees this as a potential long-term buying opportunity. Other market analysts have presented less severe downside targets, with some not expecting a drop below $0.65. However, Grace argued that only a deeper move to the $0.50 zone would complete the pattern seen in earlier cycles.

If the corrective structure plays out as before, a decline of this magnitude could shake out many speculative investors, but also provide an attractive entry point for those seeking exposure ahead of a possible new rally. Previous launchpad formations occurred before the largest percentage moves in XRP’s history; the 2018 launchpad was followed by a 10x gain, while the 2020 structure preceded the 2021 bull run peak.