Crypto analyst Sherlock suggested that, based on Bitcoin’s historical price cycles, a new all-time high (ATH) may not be seen before June 2027.
According to Sherlock’s assessment, Bitcoin has not surpassed its peak reached on October 6, 2025, for 329 days. The analyst noted that in Bitcoin’s history, after temporary corrections, the previous ATH level has been regained within a maximum of 238 days, and in periods where this timeframe has been exceeded, the recovery has taken much longer.
Sherlock noted that historical data shows Bitcoin’s fastest return to its previous peak after exceeding the 238-day mark took 622 days, arguing that the current cycle may therefore fall into a different category historically.
According to the analyst’s timeline, Bitcoin peaked on October 6, 2025, and the usual recovery window ended on June 1, 2026. Considering past long-term bear markets, the earliest date for a recapture of the previous peak is calculated as June 20, 2027.
Sherlock emphasized that in Bitcoin’s history, the previous all-time high (ATH) was either reclaimed within 238 days or the recovery took at least 622 days, with no instances falling somewhere in between.
Noting that Bitcoin has now passed its peak of 329 days, the analyst stated that only in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021 have peaks remained unbroken for such a long period. According to Sherlock, all of these periods were subsequently recorded as major cyclical peaks for Bitcoin.
However, the current price performance appears more resilient compared to past bear markets. According to Sherlock’s data, in the previous four major bear markets, Bitcoin had fallen by a median of 70.8% from its peak in the same time period. Today, the loss is approximately 37.1%.
The analyst argued that predictions suggesting Bitcoin will re-enter a price rediscovery phase in 2026 should be approached with caution due to this historical pattern. However, this assessment is based solely on past price cycles and there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will follow the same historical pattern in the future.
