Gold fell for a third straight session on Tuesday, sliding to a two-week low as a global bond selloff drove yields to their highest since 2008 and traders raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase this month to almost 70%.
Comex gold for December delivery dropped as much as 2.4% to $4,374.10 an ounce in New York, its weakest level since August 19, and was trading at $4,398.90 by late morning, down 1.8% on the day. Spot gold was 1.7% lower at $4,362.57. The three-day decline is bullion’s longest losing streak since early July.
Comex silver for December delivery fell as much as 3.2% to $64.83 an ounce before steadying at $65.48, down 2.3%. An ounce of gold now buys about 67 ounces of silver, against 70 at the end of July.
The pressure is coming from the bond market. Ten-year Treasury yields held near 4.77% and their British equivalent jumped 16 basis points to 5.22%, with Brent crude above $92 after renewed hostilities in the Middle East revived worries about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Rising yields and a firmer dollar are both headwinds for a metal that pays no income.
Fed governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that the central bank should be prepared to raise rates if inflation fails to subside, warning that price pressures risk becoming entrenched after more than five years above target. That followed chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut on Friday, when he said the Fed still had “work to do” on inflation.
Gold’s weakness “is a follow-through from Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and comments from Barr this morning on inflation,” said Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, with the renewed selloff in global bonds adding to the pressure.
The slide has undone part of a remarkable month. Gold rose about 10% in August, its best since January, after the US Treasury moved to hold down long-term borrowing costs and revived the debasement trade. Even so, bullion is now up just 0.7% in 2026 and trades about 20% below the record close of $5,419.83 it set on January 28.
The miners’ month
Gold equities gave ground on Tuesday, with Eldorado Gold down 3.2%, Agnico Eagle 2.8%, Equinox Gold 2.7%, Alamos Gold 2.7% and Gold Fields 2.5%. The month behind them was historic. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index climbed 33% in August, its best August since at least 1994 and more than three times bullion’s advance, clawing back part of a 39% retreat from its March record. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF drew its heaviest monthly inflows since February.
Over the past month Eldorado is up 44%, Equinox 40%, Gold Fields 39%, AngloGold Ashanti 38%, Coeur Mining 38% and Hecla Mining 38%, with Wheaton Precious Metals ahead 36%, Agnico Eagle 34% and Newmont 32%. The silver producers were carried along by a 20% run in the metal earlier in August that has since faded.
“A lot of this is that sort of washout phase has played out and now people are getting a bit excited about gold again,” Craig Basinger, chief market strategist at Purpose Investments, told Bloomberg who added Agnico to the firm’s dividend fund in mid-July.
Others see the pace slowing. Candice Bangsund, a portfolio manager at Fiera Capital, expects the Fed to hold rates in September but sees gold falling as low as $4,000 after moving “a little bit too far too fast.” Analyst price targets compiled by Bloomberg imply about 7% upside for Newmont over the next 12 months and roughly 10% for Agnico.
‘Don’t buy gold’
Pressure is building on the demand side too. Indian prime minister Narendra Modi told citizens on Tuesday to avoid buying gold unless necessary, his second such appeal this year, as a widening trade deficit and a weaker rupee strain the economy. Gold is India’s biggest import after oil, and shipments rose more than 32% from a year earlier in the first four months of the financial year that began in April. The country’s trade deficit widened to almost $32 billion in July, the most since January.
For all the September wobble, silver is still up 59% over the past 12 months and gold 25%.
(With files from Bloomberg)
