Gold: Pricing stays supported as Fed path questioned – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that positioning in Gold remains resilient despite a more hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh. While the recent rally is seen as premature given lingering inflation concerns and renewed hike pricing for 2027, they argue the broader backdrop has improved and do not foresee material downside as Dollar debasement and uncertain Fed hikes support precious metals.

Yellow metal holds firm post-Jackson Hole

"Fed Chair Warsh struck a more hawkish tone in his Jackson Hole speech as he acknowledged the inflation concerns."

"This has sapped some life from the precious metals complex as expected, but thus far pricing has remained well-supported."

"Hike pricing has increased to just over two hikes in 2027 again, and we have argued the recent rally in gold was too early due to these lingering inflation concerns."

"Moving forward, we do not anticipate material downside for the yellow metal as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain."

"Positioning in gold is holding firm in the aftermath of a more hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, while renewed tensions in the Middle East see CTAs turn buyers in crude oil."