Russia lowers 2026 oil production forecast, significantly reduces refined oil exports, and raises crude oil export estimates

智通财经2026/09/01 11:01

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A Russian government draft forecast shows that the country's oil and condensate output forecast for 2026 has been lowered to 494.2 million tons, the lowest in 17 years. This version of the forecast is expected to be finalized by the end of September and will be used for budget planning. Compared to the previous forecast in May, the 2026-2029 oil production forecast has been decreased by a total of 16-20 million tons.
Due to attacks on refining facilities and export control policies, the refined oil export forecast for 2026 has been revised down by 24.1 million tons to 98.5 million tons. Meanwhile, the crude oil export forecast has been raised by 7.5 million tons to 244.7 million tons, with most of the additional crude oil expected to flow to Asian markets.
The draft gives a medium- to long-term outlook: crude oil production is expected to rebound to 500 million tons in 2027, though still below previous expectations. Production is expected to continue to edge up in 2028-2029 but will remain below the 2025 output level overall. Crude oil exports will gradually decline after 2027, holding at 216.6 million tons in both 2028 and 2029.
To address domestic fuel supply tensions, Russia has implemented restrictions on refined oil exports. Although refined oil exports are estimated to rebound to 113.1 million tons in 2027, they will still be significantly below the actual scale in 2025.
Market analysts point out that damage on the refining end has forced more crude oil to be exported directly. These changes in supply and demand expectations may disrupt the flow of global cross-regional crude oil and refined oil trade.

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Russia lowers 2026 oil production forecast, significantly reduces refined oil exports, and raises crude oil export estimates

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