Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations shape FX – MUFG

Michael Wan at MUFG notes continued dispersion in Asia FX, with USD/JPY trading just below 160. NHK reports US officials urging Japan to raise interest rates, while markets already price a 92% chance of a September Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike. Communication on the full path of rate increases is seen as key for Japanese Yen (JPY) and JGB sentiment.

BoJ path in focus

"In Asia, we had continued dispersion across currencies driven by the factors mentioned above, with USD/JPY a touch below 160, KRW outperforming with USD/KRW below 1370, with some underperformance in PHP."

"NHK reported that US Secretary Scott Bessent told Japanese Finance Minister Katayama and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda that Japan’s next step should be to raise interest rates, on the sidelines of the G20 finance minister and central bank governor meeting in North Carolina. "

"Overall, with markets already pricing in a 92% chance of a September rate hike by BoJ, what matters more may not just be the September meeting but also communication about the whole path of rate hikes in upcoming BoJ meetings."