While Bitcoin’s recent recovery in the cryptocurrency market has rekindled bullish expectations, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson stated that on-chain data presents a more cautious picture. According to Wedson, the ultimate price bottom of the cycle for Bitcoin may not yet have been reached, and if certain historical indicators are repeating themselves, the BTC price could fall to $53,000 or even lower.
In his analysis, Wedson specifically highlighted the MVRV Z-Score indicator, which is used to measure investor behavior and the realized value of the market. The analyst stated that on-chain metrics reflect investor behavior, arguing that this behavior is directly linked to periods of euphoria and fear in market cycles.
Wedson Pointed Out the 2018 Bitcoin Crash
Wedson compared the current market structure to the 2017-2018 cycle. According to the analyst, the MVRV Z-Score formed three significant peaks during the 2017 bull market before Bitcoin reached its all-time high.
Wedson noted that after Bitcoin peaked and then declined, the indicator formed a base between approximately 0.25 and 1.16, adding that at the time, a large portion of the market did not expect a new and sharp drop. However, Bitcoin experienced another sharp decline in November 2018, falling to around $3,180.
According to Wedson, the MVRV Z-Score formed three separate peaks during the 2024-2025 period. However, the analyst stated that the enthusiasm at these peaks was more limited compared to 2017, as the market became more complex than in previous cycles.
Wedson noted that following Bitcoin’s recent decline after its peak, the MVRV Z-Score formed a base in an area similar to that seen in 2018, but the indicator has recently risen again, with the Bitcoin price following suit.
“MVRV Z-Score Has Not Yet Fallen into Negative Zone”
The main risk highlighted by the analyst is that the indicator has not yet reached the negative zone, which has been associated with major cycle lows in Bitcoin in the past.
Wedson stated that based on the available data, he constantly asked himself the same question: If the MVRV Z-Score needs to go down, will the Bitcoin price follow the indicator?
According to the Alphractal founder, considering only on-chain data, there aren’t enough signals to be certain that the current decline is the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin.
Wedson said that for the conditions he is tracking to be met, Bitcoin might need to fall to at least around $53,000 or even lower.
Wedson, recalling that in 2018 too, the majority of market participants did not expect another sharp decline, said that the critical question was whether the current cycle would conclude similarly to past cycles.
According to the analyst, on-chain indicators at this stage suggest that downside risks have not completely disappeared, rather than definitively indicating that “the bottom has been reached” for Bitcoin.
