Global Asian LNG spot prices have risen for three consecutive weeks to a five-month high, with Hormuz risk premiums continuing to provide support

⑴ Asian spot liquefied natural gas prices have risen for the third consecutive week, reaching the highest level in five months. The average price for October deliveries to Northeast Asia has climbed to over $23 per million British thermal units, significantly higher than last week. This increase is supported by simultaneous demand from both Asia and Europe. ⑵ Institutional analysts point out that despite prices already being at high levels, buying interest remains active in South Asian markets including India and Bangladesh. Additionally, strong electricity demand in Thailand and overall regional power consumption growth together serve as incremental drivers for Asian demand. ⑶ In Europe, Northwest European LNG spot benchmark prices have also strengthened, as market participants price in the need to attract Atlantic Basin cargoes before winter. Current European gas storage capacity stands at about 63% to 65%, significantly below levels from the same period last year, and recent injection rates indicate that the region will remain highly dependent on LNG imports for the remainder of the injection season. ⑷ The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, with this uncertainty continuing to pose upward price risks. Freight rates between the Atlantic and Pacific are diverging, the arbitrage window from the United States to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope has narrowed but still points to Europe, while the Panama route continues to favor Asia. ⑸ Looking at the forward curve, the arbitrage window from the United States to Asia is essentially closed for the remainder of 2026 and firmly points to Europe. As the peak winter demand season approaches, Europe's competitive sourcing of LNG cargoes will dominate regional pricing logic.