After repeatedly failing to break through the $4,700 level, gold prices have entered a consolidation phase; attention turns to guidance from Waller’s speech tonight.

　　Source: Xinhua Finance

　　Xinhua Finance, Beijing, August 28 — On Thursday (August 27), international gold prices surged and then retreated, closing with a slight decline and overall holding near the $4,600/ounce mark. In the short term, bullish and bearish forces have reached relative equilibrium once again.

　　Overall, after gold prices hit the weekly technical target of $4,680, repeated attempts to break above $4,700 were resisted, leading to an adjustment pattern. However, the short-term structure of gold prices indicates that space below $4,600 is relatively limited, and in the short run it may continue to fluctuate at high levels with $4,600 as the central pivot.

　　From a fundamental perspective, geopolitically, the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key unresolved issue hovering over oil prices and risk sentiment. On the economic data front, the United States reported 203,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending August 22, which was slightly lower than market expectations of 208,000 and the previous value of 206,000. However, as the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting approaches this evening, the guidance these factors provide for gold’s short term direction is unclear; overall market sentiment remains dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. In the short term, gold prices are patiently waiting for Walsh's statement on monetary policy later tonight, which may offer guidance. If Walsh’s comments are markedly hawkish, gold prices may continue to adjust downwards; otherwise, within the fluctuation range, gold may again challenge $4,700.

　　From a technical standpoint, after gold prices touched the weekly technical target of $4,680, they have recently been pressured below the round-number mark of $4,700. Upward resistance has gradually increased, and gold prices are entering a process of repeated attrition as expected. Meanwhile, gold has been blocked for three consecutive days at the $4,700 mark, forming a short-term topping pattern, which also suggests that the overall trend has entered a phase of adjustment and fluctuation.

　　The daily K-line chart shows that gold prices were suppressed at the $4,700 level during the first three trading days of this week. After falling below support from the 5-day moving average, yesterday gold briefly broke back above the 5-day moving average, but the overall adjustment pattern has not changed. Currently, gold prices remain fluctuating within the range of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, roughly between $4,625 and $4,550. The lower boundary of the short-term upward channel, which started at the $4,500 mark, is gradually moving higher and becoming an important short-term support area.

　　In summary, gold prices are still within the upward channel, but after reaching the channel's upper boundary, have shifted from unilateral gains to consolidation and adjustment. The focus for the day is on the $4,550–$4,635 range.

　　In contrast, silver has seen a catch-up rally. Analyzing the mid-term pattern of silver prices: “the overall upward trend in silver remains unchanged, with the mid-term technical target still near $80.” However, since the low of $54.7 in mid-July, silver has experienced three significant upward waves and is now once again caught in sideways movement. In the short term, silver remains suppressed by both the $70 mark and the June high of $71.5; preliminary judgment is that fluctuations will remain in the $67–$70 range, and if silver breaks upward, it could challenge the upper Bollinger band and the resonance zone at the June mid-point high of $71.5–$72.

　　Overall, in the recent sideways adjustment phase, silver has shown slightly greater strength than gold, and after its recent correction, still has the potential to further rise and reach its mid-term technical target.

　　(The authors are part of the research team at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center.)

　　Editor: Wu Zhengsi

Responsible Editor: Zhu Henan